Fulcrum Analytics

South Africa's inaugural Government of National Unity (GNU) was established following the 2024 general elections. This formation was anticipated by many as a mechanism for fostering political stability, inclusive governance, and economic reform. However, increasing dissatisfaction and emerging divisions, particularly between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA), pose a substantial threat to national social cohesion, economic confidence, and South Africa's international credibility. Recent developments have seen the DA publicly withdraw support for ANC-led departmental budgets, citing concerns of corruption. This situation highlights the profound ideological and operational divisions within the coalition.   1. Structural Challenges of the GNU The GNU comprises various ideologically diverse parties, including the ANC, DA, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), among others. These parties are united more by electoral arithmetic and mutually beneficial...

A Boko Haram flag placed on a electrical pole For over a decade and a half, the shadowy group known as Boko Haram has cast a long, brutal shadow across Nigeria and the broader Lake Chad Basin.  From its enigmatic origins to its current splintered state, this Islamist militant organisation has defied numerous attempts at eradication, leaving a trail of unimaginable suffering, displacement,  and economic devastation in its wake.  This analysis delves into the genesis, ideology, operational methods, successes, failures, and the perplexing future of a group whose name has become synonymous with terror. Origins Boko Haram, officially known as Jama'atu Ahlis-Sunna Lidda'Awati Wal-Jihad ("People Committed to the Prophet's Teachings for Propagation and Jihad"), emerged in Maiduguri, Borno State,  northeastern Nigeria, in 2002.  Its founder, the charismatic preacher Mohammed Yusuf, initially advocated a non-violent approach, focusing on Isla...

South Africa and the United States have experienced a diplomatic relationship characterized by both alignment and discord, influenced by mutual economic interests, ideological differences, and changing global dynamics. What started as initial commercial interactions in the 18th century has developed into a complex and sometimes contentious relationship, shaped by evolving strategic priorities, differing moral perspectives, and South Africa's increasing role as a middle power. Initial Interactions and Colonial Influences The origins of U.S.-South African relations trace back to 1799, when consular ties were first established in Cape Town, then under British control. In the 19th century, trade grew as American traders sought access to South Africa's burgeoning mineral wealth, especially during the diamond and gold rushes. Despite this increasing engagement, U.S. policy towards the region was largely influenced by British perspectives. During the Second Boer War (1899–1902), t...