Fulcrum Analytics

  By Alwyn Swart, Chief Intelligence Analyst, Fulcrum Analytics. A photo from a extremist online recruitment campaign, photo credits: The Wall Street Journa l . Radicalisation—the process by which individuals adopt extremist beliefs, potentially culminating in violence—is a complex phenomenon demanding thorough investigation. Understanding the motivations driving this process is crucial for developing effective preventative strategies. Extremist groups, employ sophisticated recruitment tactics, exploiting psychological vulnerabilities, social dynamics, and the persuasive power of ideology to draw in new members. This recruitment process is not random; it targets specific vulnerabilities and capitalises on existing societal tensions. The Search for Belonging: Targeting the Vulnerable Children playing in a refugee camp, photo credits: Earth.org. Extremist groups strategically target individuals seeking identity, belonging, or purpose. Adolescents and young adults, particularly those ...

  By Cara Rau,  Intelligence Analyst Specialising in African Jihadism Bottom Line Up Front On 5 January 2025 Islamic State's Central Africa Wilayah (ISCAP) released a statement claiming that its fighters had clashed with security forces in Misanga, Kayunga District on 3 January 2025 when security patrols attempted to advance towards an ISCAP position in the area. According to IS, six soldiers and two intelligence personnel were killed in the initial clashes after which, the armed forces unit fled to nearby residences. IS states that their fighters pursued the fleeing soldiers, capturing two whom they later executed. IS released two images alongside the statement, reportedly of the two captured and executed soldiers.  Misanga on Map. Source: Open Street Map Jihadism in Uganda a Persisting Threat Though rarely talked about, Uganda is no stranger to Jihadist attack. On 16 November 2021, ISCAP carried out a suicide bombing near the Ugandan parliament building in Kampala, the ...

    By  Alwyn Swart, Chief Intelligence Analyst, Fulcrum Analytics A group of ISIS fighters, photo credits: Cario Review Terrorism, defined as the use of violence, or the threat of it, to achieve political aims, has undergone a profound evolution throughout history.  From its origins in antiquity to the complex, multifaceted phenomenon of today, characterised by diverse motivations, sophisticated tactics, and far-reaching global implications,  terrorism remains a persistent challenge to international security.  This analysis will examine the historical trajectory of terrorism, tracing its development across centuries, scrutinising the objectives and methodologies employed by terrorist organisations,  and assessing the potential future contours of this enduring threat. The Genesis of Terror The term "terrorism" first emerged during the tumultuous Reign of Terror in revolutionary France (1793–1794),  a p...

Authored by: Cara Rau, Intelligence Analyst Specialising in African Jihadism Bottom Line Up Front  On 20 December 2024, Islamic State (IS) released a video of its West Africa Wilayah (ISWAP) entitled "Empowerment Generation" showing units of child soldiers in combat and in training in West Africa.  ISWAP poster advertising the video " Empowerment Generation". The name of the video speaks to ISWAP's attempts at recruitment of youths through the illusion of power. The group is appealing to the countless children in the region who feel left behind and disenfranchised and for whom joining ISWAP seems the only way to gain a sense of power and control over their lives which have been dominated by the shadow of conflict.  The video not only showed child recruits taking part in ISWAP operations, but highlighted them receiving combat training, classroom learning, and Quran recitation practice and religious education. One striking feature is the use of the children in the...