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  Aviation Security Threats: Component-level MANPADS Proliferation and Insurgent Adaptation in the Sahel Region A cache of weapons, including MANPADS, in Sudan; Source: The Washington Post. About the Editor: Itumeleng Selialia is the Head of Fulcrum Intel Digest and a Senior Intelligence Analyst specializing in African politics, international security, and cross-border relations. She is an academic researcher with expertise in risk and crisis management, and has served as a policy advisor and rapporteur for institutions like the Pan-African Parliament. Her work focuses on geopolitical security, regional integration, and developmental diplomacy, bridging the gap between scholarship and actionable intelligence. She is fluent in multiple African languages. About the Author:  Bill Christopher Arputharaj is a research scholar specialising in strategic technologies and national security, with particular expertise in hypersonic weapon systems and their application within modern w...
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ISWAP Releases Sermon From Its Wali During Ramadan

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Bottom Line Up Front Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has released a sermon by the Wali (Governor) of its West Africa Province, Abu Abed al-Rahman Al-Ansari during the Islamic month of Ramadan. The sermon is in the form of a video lasting nine minutes and 53 seconds.  This video shows how important Africa remains for Islamic State, despite attention being drawn to IS in Syria with the mass-escape of IS-linked families from al-Hol refugee camp. IS continues to operate across theatres in Africa and at the moment, Africa is where IS is achieving their goal of remaining and expanding, not Syria. While the mass escape and other factors could lead to IS rebuilding in Syria, as it currently stands, Africa is where the Caliphate 2.0 is thriving.  In Detail The sermon is entitled "Guidance and Admonition for the Righteous (Brothers of God) " and features only Al-Ansari sitting against a plain backdrop next to the IS flag. The sermon is delivered in Arabic.  The sermon st...
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Rapid Sitrep: Former JNIM Commander Who Defected to ISSP Details Reasons Behind Decision

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Saaʿd Bottom Line Up Front On 16 February 2026, it was posted in an Islamic State chatroom that a former commander of al-Qaeda's West African branch, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), known by the name Saaʿd, has released several audio recordings detailing his reasoning for his defection to Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP).  What you need to know At the time of this report, Saaʿd's date of defection is unclear. While Fulcrum Intel Digest will update this piece when we have the recordings, for now we know the following reasons from the chatroom: The commander feels that Al-Qaeda leadership do not implement Sharia "in it's entirety", despite his own efforts to implement it how he saw fit during several meetings with senior leaders from both JNIM and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).   Further, Saaʿd's view is that the accusation from Al-Qaeda that ISSP are "Kharijites" is baseless and has “no foundation in the Quran  or the Sun...
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Guardians of the Truth TV: Examining the Islamic State-Supportive Swahili-and-Luganda-Language Propaganda Ecosystem

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GRAPHIC CONTENT WARNING: This article contains descriptions of terrorism and graphic violence that some may find disturbing. Reader discretion is advised.  Guardians of the Truth (G.O.T) Television Official Logo Bottom Line Up Front An Islamic State (IS) supportive propaganda and communications outlet has emerged on numerous social media platforms. The outlet, Guardians of the Truth TV, notably sends its messaging in Swahili and Luganda to target and appeal to large groups of audiences in East Africa and the Great Lakes Region, specifically in Uganda. Estimates vary, but for context, one source states that there are over 150 million Swahili speakers and another states there are about 6 million native Luganda speakers, mostly concentrated in Uganda.  Map of areas where Swahili is spoken -  Source Uganda on Map - Source The emergence of Guardians of the Truth TV comes after Islamic State Central Africa (ISCAP) released a  video   which threatened attacks ag...
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