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Showing posts from December, 2025

Perennial al-Shabaab: A Case for International Intervention Against Domestic Failures

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  al-Shabaab fighters outside of Somalia. Source: sahistory.org. About the author: Sam Hanson is a certified intelligence analyst and a student of International Relations and Economics at Pitzer College (United States). His research interests include intelligence commonization, international security, East Asian geopolitical relations, cross-border terrorism, and astropolitics. Hanson is currently a fellow at the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies and also holds a position as course advisor at ALCON Intelligence Ltd. BLUF ·           al-Shabaab's entrenchment in Somalia persists due to a convergence of ideological absolutism, state fragility, and transnational network support that no unilateral domestic solution can adequately address.   ·             An unexplored but viable path forward lies in formally classifying the group's conduct as Crimes Against Humanity u...

Predictive Terrorism Outlook for 2026: African Actors to Watch

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GRAPHIC CONTENT WARNING: This article contains graphic descriptions of violence and terrorism that may be upsetting to some readers. Reader discretion is advised.  Bottom Line Up Front 2025 has shown us that Africa remains one of the most important theatres of operation for terrorist actors. There have been numerous developments this year and it is likely that 2026 will be more volatile than 2025 in the face of continued tensions (including with foreign partners and regional players), terrorist attacks, and attacks by armed political groups. Factors like climate change, political tensions, poverty, and foreign interference could also exacerbate the situation.  Islamic State Islamic State (IS) continues operations and attacks across numerous African theatres. The following infographic was released by the group, showing the most prominent assaults during the Islamic months of Rabi al-Awal and Rabi al-Akhar. Out of the seven attacks listed, only two are outside Africa. This highl...