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Showing posts from December, 2024

Perennial al-Shabaab: A Case for International Intervention Against Domestic Failures

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  al-Shabaab fighters outside of Somalia. Source: sahistory.org. About the author: Sam Hanson is a certified intelligence analyst and a student of International Relations and Economics at Pitzer College (United States). His research interests include intelligence commonization, international security, East Asian geopolitical relations, cross-border terrorism, and astropolitics. Hanson is currently a fellow at the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies and also holds a position as course advisor at ALCON Intelligence Ltd. BLUF ·           al-Shabaab's entrenchment in Somalia persists due to a convergence of ideological absolutism, state fragility, and transnational network support that no unilateral domestic solution can adequately address.   ·             An unexplored but viable path forward lies in formally classifying the group's conduct as Crimes Against Humanity u...

Geopolitical Forecast For 2025

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  Shipping containers violently connect, depicting the elevated levels of competition between the U.S. and China.  Photo credit: Heartland Bank.   The current geopolitical landscape is marked by unprecedented instability, with multiple conflicts and power shifts contributing to a complex and volatile environment. As we approach 2025, the following analysis synthesizes recent developments and anticipates future trends across various regions. Global Conflict Overview: 1) Europe: The Russia-Ukraine War The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains a focal point of European instability. This war has not only resulted in significant military and civilian casualties but has also disrupted energy supplies and economic stability across the continent. The prospect of a protracted conflict raises concerns about a winter of discontent, particularly as European nations grapple with energy shortages exacerbated by sanctions on Russia. The likelihood of escalation remains hig...