South Africa and the Question of Coup Risk: A Critical Assessment

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On August 19, 2025, Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni refuted allegations that South Africa is at risk of a coup, emphasizing that the nation's constitutional framework remains strong and unshaken. Her remarks came in response to increasing public discourse and media conjecture following the violent unrest in July 2021, ongoing governance issues, and the growing number of military coups in other African countries. While the Minister's assurances are crucial for alleviating concerns, the question persists: is South Africa genuinely shielded from the threat of a coup? This article examines South Africa's current security posture, the resilience of its democratic institutions, and the structural challenges it faces. It then contrasts South Africa's situation with other African nations that have recently undergone coups, before evaluating whether Pretoria's confidence in its stability is justified. South Africa's Democratic Resilience Since aparthe...
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