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Showing posts from November, 2025

THE WISDOM DROUGHT THE HIDDEN IRONY OF MODERN CORPORATE INTELLIGENCE

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  About the Author Jasmine Opperman is a world-renowned intelligence professional specialising in extremism and intelligence within the mining sector. She served for over 20 years in the South African intelligence services, rising to the position of Provincial Head of the Eastern Cape for the National Intelligence Agency (NIA). She is currently an advisor and senior intelligence analyst for both Fulcrum Analytics and the Fulcrum Intel Digest service.  We tend to think of intelligence failures as the domain of spies and secret agencies. But when a Fortune 500 company spends millions on market research and still fails to see a disruptive competitor coming, it is suffering from the exact same pathology: a wisdom drought. Executive Summary In an era defined by exponential data generation and complex transnational threats, such as Southern Africa's cross-border illicit mining syndicates, corporate survival demands a continuous, technology-augmented intelligence ecosystem. This pape...
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Predictive Geopolitical Outlook for 2026: Multipolarity, Strategic Competition, and Emerging Regional Agency

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  The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment in the transformation of the global landscape as the international system continues its transition toward a multipolar world. Key nations - notably China, the United States, India, and Russia - are expected to adjust their geopolitical strategies to gain economic benefits, political clout, and security interests. Experts predict that geopolitical rivalry will become more intense without leading to large-scale conflict, primarily because economic interdependence remains a stabilizing factor among competing blocs. Instead, 2026 is likely to be marked by transactional diplomacy, contested areas of influence, and increased fragmentation within global governance frameworks. This shift reveals weaknesses in the declining unipolar order while offering emerging regions new opportunities to exert greater strategic influence.   Africa is set to become one of the most significant of these emerging regions. With an anticipated continen...
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Botswana’s Diamond Dilemma: The Impact of Lab-Grown Diamonds and De Beers’ Sale on the SADC Region

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       Since its inception in 1888, De Beers has maintained a stronghold on the international diamond market through a cartel-like system that controlled supply and kept prices elevated. The longstanding collaboration between De Beers and the Botswana government, through their equally owned venture Debswana, has been a benchmark for resource management and fair distribution of benefits in Africa (Wyk, 2010). However, Anglo American's 2024 announcement to withdraw from De Beers signifies a pivotal change. Experts believe that Anglo's move was influenced by decreasing profit margins and increasing competition from synthetic diamond producers, whose market share expanded from 1% in 2015 to over 15% by 2023 (Shah, 2025; Bain & Company, 2023). This shift prompts concerns about the viability of Botswana's diamond-driven economic model, especially since De Beers has traditionally overseen not just mining but also the marketing, branding, and integration of Botswana'...
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Al-Qaeda's Branch in West Africa, Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), Reportedly Expands to Nigeria

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Bottom Line Up Front  On 31 October 2025, a video allegedly from al-Qaeda's branch in West Africa, Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), circulated widely online, showing the group claim credit for its first-ever attack in Nigeria. JNIM is already active in Mali, Benin, Niger, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Togo. JNIM's name translates as Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims. At the time of writing, JNIM's official propaganda outlet, Az-Zallaqa Media, has not released a statement about the attack and the video in question does not contain any Az-Zallaqa branding.  The video shows weapons, ammunition and military equipment seized from an attack in Nuku, Kwara State, Nigeria. At the time of this report, JNIM's official propaganda outlet, Az-Zallaqa Media, has issued no claim of credit for the attack. The video was taken in a forested area and is narrated by the cameraman. The narrator can be heard saying the words "Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin...
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