By Cara Rau, Intelligence Analyst Specialising in African Jihadism
Bottom Line Up Front
On 5 January 2025 Islamic State's Central Africa Wilayah (ISCAP) released a statement claiming that its fighters had clashed with security forces in Misanga, Kayunga District on 3 January 2025 when security patrols attempted to advance towards an ISCAP position in the area. According to IS, six soldiers and two intelligence personnel were killed in the initial clashes after which, the armed forces unit fled to nearby residences. IS states that their fighters pursued the fleeing soldiers, capturing two whom they later executed. IS released two images alongside the statement, reportedly of the two captured and executed soldiers.
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| Misanga on Map. Source: Open Street Map |
Jihadism in Uganda a Persisting Threat
Though rarely talked about, Uganda is no stranger to Jihadist attack. On 16 November 2021, ISCAP carried out a suicide bombing near the Ugandan parliament building in Kampala, the capital, killing at least seven people (including the attackers) and injuring others. This was the first time ISCAP had ever conducted a suicide attack in Uganda and sent shockwaves through the region.
The cross-border nature of ISCAP in Uganda from DRC was then highlighted on 16 June 2023, when an ISCAP unit from DRC crossed the border and carried out a deadly attack on the Christian Lhubiriha Secondary School in Kasese District in the borderlands. The barbaric attack killed 42 people including 37 students, 4 members of the community, and 1 security guard. Twenty students were reportedly hacked to death with machetes while 17 others were killed when a grenade set fire to their dorms.
ISCAP has also targeted foreigners in Uganda. In October 2023, two tourists (a South African and a British citizen) and their Ugandan guide were killed by ISCAP in the world-famous Queen Elizabeth National Park.
Uganda is an ideal place for ISCAP to operate in as it allows access to multiple types of targets: Christians, local security forces, and foreign tourists.
Central Africa: The forgotten theatre
In the statement mentioned above, IS explicitly stated that the Ugandan government is trying to export a narrative that IS has been eliminated in Uganda, imposing a "media blackout" on the reality of what is happening on the ground. Indeed, it is striking that, according to multiple news outlets, the national armed forces, the Ugandan People's Defence Force (UPDF), categorically denied that the attack happened, stating that the claim from IS was baseless propaganda.
In 2017, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) pledged allegiance to IS through Seka Musa Baluku, a long-time member of the ADF and second in command to ADF founder Jamil Mukulu before the pledge. It is striking that although there is currently a reward of up to $5 million from the US government for information on Baluku, the world seems to have forgotten that IS even exists in Central Africa. News reports in international media rarely mention the DRC, despite near-constant attacks on Christians, Muslims, and security forces in North-Kivu and Ituri Provinces and even those living in the region are unaware of the threat from ISCAP. This ignorance speaks to bigger issues including regional political policies that do not prioritise regional security, foreign interference in the form of information campaigns, and local news outlets being more concerned with the Middle East etc.
The issue is compounded by the presence of the March 23 Movement (M23) which also operates in Ituri and North-Kivu, and which is allegedly supported by Rwanda and Uganda. The M23 issue highlights how regional instability and old grievances (such as that between Rwanda and DRC as a result of the Rwandan Genocide during the Rwandan Civil War) impedes regional cooperation against terrorist groups.
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| Seka Musa Baluku. Source: Rewards for Justice |
Jihad and Ecology
It is no secret that militants use thick forests as bases for their aerial cover and abundance of food and fresh water. A prime example is the W National Park which straddles parts of Benin, Burkina Faso and Niger. Al-Qaeda's West African branch, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is known to operate out of this park. It has to be noted that this latest attack in Uganda took place just outside the Bajo Central Forest Reserve and it is possible (perhaps even likely) that the unit that carried out the attack in Misanga has their base in the reserve. The use of forests as a base adds another layer of complexity to counter-terrorism in Central Africa.
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| Bajo Central Forest Reserve. Source: Hervey Holdings |
Looking Forward
Better and more military cooperation between regional nations is essential to combat the terrorist threat to Uganda. Ideally, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) would deploy a counter-terrorism force to Uganda to cooperate with local military to seek out and eliminate the threat. It is striking that attacks by ISCAP in Eastern DRC continue despite the ongoing UN peacekeeping force stationed in the border-city of Goma and as such, it is unclear how the UN could aid if they deployed a force to Uganda. Better cooperation with the private sector in Southern Africa, specifically with experts on terrorism from South Africa, could also aid in the elimination of ISCAP from Uganda. Ultimately, combating the terrorist threat to the region comes down to eliminating their funding and access to weaponry, and stemming recruitment into the group through local capacity and resilience building propgrams. A multi-faceted and robust approach is thus needed. None of this can be done, though, until more people start paying attention to the fact that Uganda is one of the most vulnerable Central African nations to the spread of Jihadist terrorism.
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