Predictive Terrorism Outlook for 2026: African Actors to Watch

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GRAPHIC CONTENT WARNING: This article contains graphic descriptions of violence and terrorism that may be upsetting to some readers. Reader discretion is advised.  Bottom Line Up Front 2025 has shown us that Africa remains one of the most important theatres of operation for terrorist actors. There have been numerous developments this year and it is likely that 2026 will be more volatile than 2025 in the face of continued tensions (including with foreign partners and regional players), terrorist attacks, and attacks by armed political groups. Factors like climate change, political tensions, poverty, and foreign interference could also exacerbate the situation.  Islamic State Islamic State (IS) continues operations and attacks across numerous African theatres. The following infographic was released by the group, showing the most prominent assaults during the Islamic months of Rabi al-Awal and Rabi al-Akhar. Out of the seven attacks listed, only two are outside Africa. This highl...
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The Puntland Problem: Between Islamic State and Al-Shabaab

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Author: Cara Rau; Intelligence Analyst Specialising in African Jihadism 

Bottom Line Up Front 

On 1 February 2025 US President Donald Trump said that the US had carried out air strikes against Islamic State fighters in Somalia's Cal Miskaad Mountains, part of the Golis Mountain Range in the North-East of the country. Several high-ranking Islamic State Somalia (ISS) fighters were reportedly killed in the strike. 


Golis Mountain Range, Somalia. 

Puntland Geography Ideal for IS Hideouts

The US strike comes after Puntland security forces recently destroyed several bases belonging to ISS in the Cal Miskaad Mountains, reportedly taking some foreign fighters captive in the process. These mountains are highly strategic and have previously been used by Al Shabaab as a hideout. It is also notable that the fighters utilising these caves now originate from neighbouring African countries, many from Ethiopia, and from the Middle East across the Gulf of Aden. Security forces recovered a Saudi passport among the items captured in the recent Puntland operation. The passport reportedly belonged to a fighter who entered Somalia through the Ethiopian border, passed through Somaliland, and eventually reached the Cal Miskaad region. The presence of foreign fighters in ISS ranks speaks to successful international recruitment efforts by ISS and highlights the importance of understanding the foreign fighter phenomenon in this context. It also emphasises the importance of Africa as a hub for IS fighters from the Middle East; this is quite a contrast to how it was in the past during the height of the IS Caliphate across Syria and Iraq when fighters from Africa travelled to the Levant to join ISIS/ISIL. 


Puntland security forces displayed four foreign passports and two identification cards abandoned by foreign ISS fighters during an operation in the Cal-Miskaad Mountains. Source: Shabelle Media Network


Ethnic Clans Integral to CT in the Region

Puntland authorities have attempted to enlist the region’s ethnic clans in their stand against ISS and have reached out specifically to clans living near the Cal Miskaad Mountains for aid. This is especially important as ethnic clans could warn the authorities of ISS fighters moving through their territory as they are on their way to carry out an attack. On 31 December 2024, an ISS unit carried out a suicide attack on a Puntland counter-terrorism forces base in Dharjaale, killing 20 soldiers after moving unreported to their target. The Puntland authorities said that this incident was a failure of their intelligence system. It is not unusual for governments and authorities to enlist the help of ethnic clans in counter-terrorism. Local ethnic clans in the Cal Miskaad area know the rugged terrain and can navigate the area confidently. They can also likely anticipate any problems and provide solutions before the problem even emerges; a highly valuable trait in counter-terrorism on the ground. 

Puntland forces carry out an operation to clear Islamic State Somalia members from the Cal Miskaad Mountains. Source: Somalia National News Agency 

ISS vs Al Shabaab 

Since ISS has grabbed news headlines, especially after the US strike, one might be tempted to think that ISS is the main and only threat to Somali security. However,  it is important to note that Al Shabaab continue to carry out attacks in Hiraan, Galgududd, Lower Shabelle, and other regions in the South of Somalia and that Shabaab have carried out attacks in Puntland in the past. Thus, while the North of the country (a large swath of which is under Puntland control)grapples with the challenges of a growing ISS force marked by the presence of foreign fighters, the South struggles with the ever-present Al Shabaab problem. While ISS presence in the mountains of Northern Somalia is extremely concerning, Al Shabaab is still the dominant terrorist group in Somalia and it should not be forgotten or ignored in favour of combating ISS. 

The Puntland Problem 

Puntland is a semi-autonomous region that is a federated state of Somalia and it has been relatively stable compared to the rest of the country in the past. It has even been a haven for many Somalis fleeing violence in the South of the country. However, Puntland's own internal political tension and insecurity adds to an already unstable situation. The political issues in Puntland stem mainly from weak governance and the breakdown of both intra-clan unity and pan-Darood solidarity, which were key to Puntland’s founding in 1998. Tensions within the Darood clan have undermined the consensus-driven politics that once helped maintain stability. The piracy crisis off the coast of Puntland is a stark manifestation of these deeper issues, which, if not addressed, could lead to Puntland’s disintegration or a takeover by an Islamist group. To resolve the security threat, Puntland's government must implement reforms that promote greater transparency and inclusivity for all clans within the region.

Puntland on Map of Somalia. Source: Open Street Map (OSM) 








Political and intelligence analyst with expertise in African Jihadism and political violence.

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