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Showing posts from March, 2025

South Africa and the Question of Coup Risk: A Critical Assessment

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On August 19, 2025, Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni refuted allegations that South Africa is at risk of a coup, emphasizing that the nation's constitutional framework remains strong and unshaken. Her remarks came in response to increasing public discourse and media conjecture following the violent unrest in July 2021, ongoing governance issues, and the growing number of military coups in other African countries. While the Minister's assurances are crucial for alleviating concerns, the question persists: is South Africa genuinely shielded from the threat of a coup? This article examines South Africa's current security posture, the resilience of its democratic institutions, and the structural challenges it faces. It then contrasts South Africa's situation with other African nations that have recently undergone coups, before evaluating whether Pretoria's confidence in its stability is justified. South Africa's Democratic Resilience Since aparthe...
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The Implications of SADC Troop Withdrawal from Eastern Congo on Regional Stability

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                                                                    Photo credits: The Chronicle ZW The withdrawal of SADC troops from the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) represents a significant turning point in the conflict dynamics within the region. SADC's military intervention, which has for years remained at the core of containing the activities of armed militias and supporting the government of the DRC. The withdrawal of these troops raises pressing questions about the future of regional stability, security governance, and the broader implications for the DRC and its neighbours. The rationale behind this withdrawal, the immediate security void that it creates, and the potential for increased conflict are all paramount in ascertaining the long-term stability of the region. The SADC and EAC Foreign Minis...
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JNIM

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JNIM Fighters in the Sahel. Photo credits: Long War Journal Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda's most formidable African affiliate, has evolved into a sophisticated hybrid threat across the Sahel, effectively combining guerrilla warfare,  economic exploitation, and community co-option, generating an estimated annual revenue exceeding $100 million from illicit activities,  and achieving a battlefield lethality surpassing regional military capabilities to control territories larger than Belgium;  this short analysis, drawing upon classified intelligence, defector accounts, and field observations, examines JNIM’s structure and development,  revealing an ideological shift from global jihad to localised legitimacy under Iyad Ag Ghaly, wherein the group strategically exploits ethnic grievances, climate vulnerabilities,  and anti-colonial sentiment, as evidenced by their 2023 "Charter of the Sahel" aiming for an "Islamic...
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