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Showing posts from March, 2025

Predictive Terrorism Outlook for 2026: African Actors to Watch

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GRAPHIC CONTENT WARNING: This article contains graphic descriptions of violence and terrorism that may be upsetting to some readers. Reader discretion is advised.  Bottom Line Up Front 2025 has shown us that Africa remains one of the most important theatres of operation for terrorist actors. There have been numerous developments this year and it is likely that 2026 will be more volatile than 2025 in the face of continued tensions (including with foreign partners and regional players), terrorist attacks, and attacks by armed political groups. Factors like climate change, political tensions, poverty, and foreign interference could also exacerbate the situation.  Islamic State Islamic State (IS) continues operations and attacks across numerous African theatres. The following infographic was released by the group, showing the most prominent assaults during the Islamic months of Rabi al-Awal and Rabi al-Akhar. Out of the seven attacks listed, only two are outside Africa. This highl...
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The Implications of SADC Troop Withdrawal from Eastern Congo on Regional Stability

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                                                                    Photo credits: The Chronicle ZW The withdrawal of SADC troops from the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) represents a significant turning point in the conflict dynamics within the region. SADC's military intervention, which has for years remained at the core of containing the activities of armed militias and supporting the government of the DRC. The withdrawal of these troops raises pressing questions about the future of regional stability, security governance, and the broader implications for the DRC and its neighbours. The rationale behind this withdrawal, the immediate security void that it creates, and the potential for increased conflict are all paramount in ascertaining the long-term stability of the region. The SADC and EAC Foreign Minis...
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JNIM

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JNIM Fighters in the Sahel. Photo credits: Long War Journal Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda's most formidable African affiliate, has evolved into a sophisticated hybrid threat across the Sahel, effectively combining guerrilla warfare,  economic exploitation, and community co-option, generating an estimated annual revenue exceeding $100 million from illicit activities,  and achieving a battlefield lethality surpassing regional military capabilities to control territories larger than Belgium;  this short analysis, drawing upon classified intelligence, defector accounts, and field observations, examines JNIM’s structure and development,  revealing an ideological shift from global jihad to localised legitimacy under Iyad Ag Ghaly, wherein the group strategically exploits ethnic grievances, climate vulnerabilities,  and anti-colonial sentiment, as evidenced by their 2023 "Charter of the Sahel" aiming for an "Islamic...
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