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Showing posts from March, 2025

Examining the security situation on the African Continent

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Author: Cara Rau, Political and Intelligence Analyst  WARNING: THIS REPORT CONTAINS DESCRIPTIONS OF GRAPHIC VIOLENCE AND CONTENT SOME MAY FIND DISTURBING. READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.  Bottom Line Up Front  Despite the world's largest displacement crisis affecting Sudan, and Burkina Faso being ranked by the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) in 2025 as the nation the most affected by terrorism in the world, the mainstream media still appears to favour reporting on Gaza and Ukraine. Of course these conflicts deserve our attention, but so do other parts of the world, specifically Africa, a continent the world media has left behind.  South Africa   Despite South Africa not being at war nor being actively targeted by Jihadist insurgents, the security situation in the country remains dire. Violent crime remains a threat with gender-based violence, gang violence, organised crime and other related topics continuing to make local headlines. The security situation in ...
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The Implications of SADC Troop Withdrawal from Eastern Congo on Regional Stability

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                                                                    Photo credits: The Chronicle ZW The withdrawal of SADC troops from the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) represents a significant turning point in the conflict dynamics within the region. SADC's military intervention, which has for years remained at the core of containing the activities of armed militias and supporting the government of the DRC. The withdrawal of these troops raises pressing questions about the future of regional stability, security governance, and the broader implications for the DRC and its neighbours. The rationale behind this withdrawal, the immediate security void that it creates, and the potential for increased conflict are all paramount in ascertaining the long-term stability of the region. The SADC and EAC Foreign Minis...
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JNIM

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JNIM Fighters in the Sahel. Photo credits: Long War Journal Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda's most formidable African affiliate, has evolved into a sophisticated hybrid threat across the Sahel, effectively combining guerrilla warfare,  economic exploitation, and community co-option, generating an estimated annual revenue exceeding $100 million from illicit activities,  and achieving a battlefield lethality surpassing regional military capabilities to control territories larger than Belgium;  this short analysis, drawing upon classified intelligence, defector accounts, and field observations, examines JNIM’s structure and development,  revealing an ideological shift from global jihad to localised legitimacy under Iyad Ag Ghaly, wherein the group strategically exploits ethnic grievances, climate vulnerabilities,  and anti-colonial sentiment, as evidenced by their 2023 "Charter of the Sahel" aiming for an "Islamic...
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