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Showing posts from March, 2025

ISWAP Releases Sermon From Its Wali During Ramadan

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Bottom Line Up Front Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has released a sermon by the Wali (Governor) of its West Africa Province, Abu Abed al-Rahman Al-Ansari during the Islamic month of Ramadan. The sermon is in the form of a video lasting nine minutes and 53 seconds.  This video shows how important Africa remains for Islamic State, despite attention being drawn to IS in Syria with the mass-escape of IS-linked families from al-Hol refugee camp. IS continues to operate across theatres in Africa and at the moment, Africa is where IS is achieving their goal of remaining and expanding, not Syria. While the mass escape and other factors could lead to IS rebuilding in Syria, as it currently stands, Africa is where the Caliphate 2.0 is thriving.  In Detail The sermon is entitled "Guidance and Admonition for the Righteous (Brothers of God) " and features only Al-Ansari sitting against a plain backdrop next to the IS flag. The sermon is delivered in Arabic.  The sermon st...
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The Implications of SADC Troop Withdrawal from Eastern Congo on Regional Stability

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                                                                    Photo credits: The Chronicle ZW The withdrawal of SADC troops from the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) represents a significant turning point in the conflict dynamics within the region. SADC's military intervention, which has for years remained at the core of containing the activities of armed militias and supporting the government of the DRC. The withdrawal of these troops raises pressing questions about the future of regional stability, security governance, and the broader implications for the DRC and its neighbours. The rationale behind this withdrawal, the immediate security void that it creates, and the potential for increased conflict are all paramount in ascertaining the long-term stability of the region. The SADC and EAC Foreign Minis...
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JNIM

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JNIM Fighters in the Sahel. Photo credits: Long War Journal Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda's most formidable African affiliate, has evolved into a sophisticated hybrid threat across the Sahel, effectively combining guerrilla warfare,  economic exploitation, and community co-option, generating an estimated annual revenue exceeding $100 million from illicit activities,  and achieving a battlefield lethality surpassing regional military capabilities to control territories larger than Belgium;  this short analysis, drawing upon classified intelligence, defector accounts, and field observations, examines JNIM’s structure and development,  revealing an ideological shift from global jihad to localised legitimacy under Iyad Ag Ghaly, wherein the group strategically exploits ethnic grievances, climate vulnerabilities,  and anti-colonial sentiment, as evidenced by their 2023 "Charter of the Sahel" aiming for an "Islamic...
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