Predictive Terrorism Outlook for 2026: African Actors to Watch

By -
Image
GRAPHIC CONTENT WARNING: This article contains graphic descriptions of violence and terrorism that may be upsetting to some readers. Reader discretion is advised.  Bottom Line Up Front 2025 has shown us that Africa remains one of the most important theatres of operation for terrorist actors. There have been numerous developments this year and it is likely that 2026 will be more volatile than 2025 in the face of continued tensions (including with foreign partners and regional players), terrorist attacks, and attacks by armed political groups. Factors like climate change, political tensions, poverty, and foreign interference could also exacerbate the situation.  Islamic State Islamic State (IS) continues operations and attacks across numerous African theatres. The following infographic was released by the group, showing the most prominent assaults during the Islamic months of Rabi al-Awal and Rabi al-Akhar. Out of the seven attacks listed, only two are outside Africa. This highl...
Post a Comment

JNIM

By -


JNIM Fighters in the Sahel. Photo credits: Long War Journal

Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda's most formidable African affiliate, has evolved into a sophisticated hybrid threat across the Sahel, effectively combining guerrilla warfare, economic exploitation, and community co-option, generating an estimated annual revenue exceeding $100 million from illicit activities, and achieving a battlefield lethality surpassing regional military capabilities to control territories larger than Belgium; this short analysis, drawing upon classified intelligence, defector accounts, and field observations, examines JNIM’s structure and development, revealing an ideological shift from global jihad to localised legitimacy under Iyad Ag Ghaly, wherein the group strategically exploits ethnic grievances, climate vulnerabilities, and anti-colonial sentiment, as evidenced by their 2023 "Charter of the Sahel" aiming for an "Islamic Emirates Union," and further demonstrating their adaptive strategy through a decentralised system of Amirats, implementing tailored governance models such as Sharia courts and taxation in Macina, gold mine levies in Liptako, and smuggling oversight in Gourma, thereby establishing a nuanced and economically driven proto-state across the region's porous borders.


Expansion of JNIM 2017 - 2023. Photo credits: ACLED

JNIM's operational strategy encompasses urban infiltration, evidenced by sleeper cell establishment in Bamako and Ouagadougou, alongside coastal expansion into Benin's Pendjari National Park, facilitating illicit trafficking; its military doctrine follows a three-phase model: "softening" through infrastructure sabotage and economic disruption, "shock" via coordinated motorcycle assaults and drone warfare, and "consolidation" employing forced marriages and the imposition of jihadist education. Economically, JNIM functions as a quasi-corporation, generating $100 million annually through resource extraction (gold and uranium), transit taxes, and external financing (cryptocurrency and ransom), yet faces strategic vulnerabilities including leadership succession risks, rivalry with ISIS, and local resistance to its governance. Projections for 2025-2030 suggest three potential scenarios: consolidation of central Sahel control, escalation through ECOWAS intervention, or internal fragmentation. Recommended policy responses include precision financial warfare targeting illicit gold trade and cryptocurrency flows, counter-governance initiatives to challenge JNIM's legitimacy, and enhanced regional air dominance through drone transfers and intelligence sharing.

The Road Ahead

JNIM represents the “third generation” of jihadism – less reliant on global terror spectacles than on patient state capture. Its 2024 capture of Burkina Faso’s Djibo hydropower dam, now charging fees for water access, epitomises this shift. As climate shocks and coups erode regional stability, the group’s fusion of Kalashnikovs and Keynesian economics may soon render it unbeatable by conventional military means. The Sahel’s future now hinges on whether democracies can outgovern – not just outshoot – this insurgent hydra.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Examining the security situation on the African Continent

By -
Image
Author: Cara Rau, Political and Intelligence Analyst  WARNING: THIS REPORT CONTAINS DESCRIPTIONS OF GRAPHIC VIOLENCE AND CONTENT SOME MAY FIND DISTURBING. READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.  Bottom Line Up Front  Despite the world's largest displacement crisis affecting Sudan, and Burkina Faso being ranked by the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) in 2025 as the nation the most affected by terrorism in the world, the mainstream media still appears to favour reporting on Gaza and Ukraine. Of course these conflicts deserve our attention, but so do other parts of the world, specifically Africa, a continent the world media has left behind.  South Africa   Despite South Africa not being at war nor being actively targeted by Jihadist insurgents, the security situation in the country remains dire. Violent crime remains a threat with gender-based violence, gang violence, organised crime and other related topics continuing to make local headlines. The security situation in ...
Read more

The Lesotho-South Africa Land Question: A Comprehensive Intelligence Analysis of Historical Dynamics and Contemporary Developments *Co-Authored by Cara Rau

By -
Image
Recent legislative votes are not the only thing that has fuelled the controversy over territorial claims between Lesotho and portions of South Africa. Rather, it is the result of changing ethnic identities, colonial boundary legacies, decades of historical grievances, and changing regional politics. Understanding the underlying dynamics that continue to influence the conversation in this region of Southern Africa about land, identity, and sovereignty requires a long-term viewpoint. Historical Foundations: Colonial Borders and the Creation of Basutoland The roots of the conflict can be traced back to the colonial period when European nations divided Southern Africa without considering the indigenous lands and social systems. In 1868, Lesotho, then known as Basutoland, became a British protectorate primarily to protect the Basotho people under Moshoeshoe I from Boer expansion and Zulu conflicts. This colonial boundary-setting divided Basotho communities between what is now South Afri...
Read more

South Africa, Swaziland, and the USA: Unpacking Southern Africa’s Hidden Security Crisis on Borders, Crime, and Prisoner Transfers

By -
Image
On an otherwise uneventful day in July 2025, a discreetly chartered plane touched down at Eswatini's main airport, carrying five individuals who had been convicted of serious crimes in the United States. These men, originating from Vietnam, Jamaica, Laos, Cuba, and Yemen, had no prior residence or legal connections to Eswatini. Within a few hours, they were placed in maximum security detention, officially labeled by authorities as being "in transit." The lack of public announcements, the absence of parliamentary oversight, and vague explanations highlighted an irregularity that demands the attention of security experts throughout the region. For an analyst, this incident is like a lightning flash in a storm, revealing the outlines of a much larger security landscape. From a realist perspective, this transfer represents an exercise in power projection and the outsourcing of liabilities. Washington has discovered a way to remove politically sensitive individuals without the...
Read more