South Africa and the Question of Coup Risk: A Critical Assessment

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On August 19, 2025, Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni refuted allegations that South Africa is at risk of a coup, emphasizing that the nation's constitutional framework remains strong and unshaken. Her remarks came in response to increasing public discourse and media conjecture following the violent unrest in July 2021, ongoing governance issues, and the growing number of military coups in other African countries. While the Minister's assurances are crucial for alleviating concerns, the question persists: is South Africa genuinely shielded from the threat of a coup? This article examines South Africa's current security posture, the resilience of its democratic institutions, and the structural challenges it faces. It then contrasts South Africa's situation with other African nations that have recently undergone coups, before evaluating whether Pretoria's confidence in its stability is justified. South Africa's Democratic Resilience Since aparthe...
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JNIM

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JNIM Fighters in the Sahel. Photo credits: Long War Journal

Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda's most formidable African affiliate, has evolved into a sophisticated hybrid threat across the Sahel, effectively combining guerrilla warfare, economic exploitation, and community co-option, generating an estimated annual revenue exceeding $100 million from illicit activities, and achieving a battlefield lethality surpassing regional military capabilities to control territories larger than Belgium; this short analysis, drawing upon classified intelligence, defector accounts, and field observations, examines JNIM’s structure and development, revealing an ideological shift from global jihad to localised legitimacy under Iyad Ag Ghaly, wherein the group strategically exploits ethnic grievances, climate vulnerabilities, and anti-colonial sentiment, as evidenced by their 2023 "Charter of the Sahel" aiming for an "Islamic Emirates Union," and further demonstrating their adaptive strategy through a decentralised system of Amirats, implementing tailored governance models such as Sharia courts and taxation in Macina, gold mine levies in Liptako, and smuggling oversight in Gourma, thereby establishing a nuanced and economically driven proto-state across the region's porous borders.


Expansion of JNIM 2017 - 2023. Photo credits: ACLED

JNIM's operational strategy encompasses urban infiltration, evidenced by sleeper cell establishment in Bamako and Ouagadougou, alongside coastal expansion into Benin's Pendjari National Park, facilitating illicit trafficking; its military doctrine follows a three-phase model: "softening" through infrastructure sabotage and economic disruption, "shock" via coordinated motorcycle assaults and drone warfare, and "consolidation" employing forced marriages and the imposition of jihadist education. Economically, JNIM functions as a quasi-corporation, generating $100 million annually through resource extraction (gold and uranium), transit taxes, and external financing (cryptocurrency and ransom), yet faces strategic vulnerabilities including leadership succession risks, rivalry with ISIS, and local resistance to its governance. Projections for 2025-2030 suggest three potential scenarios: consolidation of central Sahel control, escalation through ECOWAS intervention, or internal fragmentation. Recommended policy responses include precision financial warfare targeting illicit gold trade and cryptocurrency flows, counter-governance initiatives to challenge JNIM's legitimacy, and enhanced regional air dominance through drone transfers and intelligence sharing.

The Road Ahead

JNIM represents the “third generation” of jihadism – less reliant on global terror spectacles than on patient state capture. Its 2024 capture of Burkina Faso’s Djibo hydropower dam, now charging fees for water access, epitomises this shift. As climate shocks and coups erode regional stability, the group’s fusion of Kalashnikovs and Keynesian economics may soon render it unbeatable by conventional military means. The Sahel’s future now hinges on whether democracies can outgovern – not just outshoot – this insurgent hydra.

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