Examining the security situation on the African Continent
Author: Cara Rau, Political and Intelligence Analyst
WARNING: THIS REPORT CONTAINS DESCRIPTIONS OF GRAPHIC VIOLENCE AND CONTENT SOME MAY FIND DISTURBING. READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.
Bottom Line Up Front
Despite the world's largest displacement crisis affecting Sudan, and Burkina Faso being ranked by the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) in 2025 as the nation the most affected by terrorism in the world, the mainstream media still appears to favour reporting on Gaza and Ukraine. Of course these conflicts deserve our attention, but so do other parts of the world, specifically Africa, a continent the world media has left behind.
South Africa
Despite South Africa not being at war nor being actively targeted by Jihadist insurgents, the security situation in the country remains dire. Violent crime remains a threat with gender-based violence, gang violence, organised crime and other related topics continuing to make local headlines. The security situation in South Africa is underscored by recent explosive allegations by General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, head of the police in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, who reported that he had carried out an investigation that showed that some “politicians, law enforcement, SAPS (South African Police Service), metro police and correctional services, prosecutors, judiciary” were being “controlled by drug cartels and as well as businesspeople.” It has long been known that corruption is rife in the national security setup of the country, but it is highly unusual for top officials to accuse one another of corruption and general involvement with crime syndicates. On 13 July, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa announced the suspension of police minister Senzo Mchunu, who is one of the individuals against whom the allegations were levied by Mkhwanazi. Ramaphosa announced an investigation into the allegations and ensuring protection for Mkhwanazi should now be paramount as whistleblowers have been killed in targeted assassinations in South Africa in the past.
South Africa is a notable case study for the spread of Jihadism on the continent and the country is not immune to this phenomenon. On 12 July 2025, the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) confirmed that it has rejected the application of the Islamic State of Africa (ISA) to register as a political party. The founder of the party, Farhad Hoomer, has previously been accused of terrorism in South Africa and is also suspected by authorities in the United States (US) of being the leader of a Islamic State cell operating in South Africa. It should be noted that in May of this year, Hoomer said he had started ISA because he wanted to introduce Sharia law to South Africa. The name of the party being so similar to the "Islamic State" terrorist group is also striking.
Jihadist terrorism a continued threat
On 4 July 2025, Islamic State (IS) released the below infographic which was originally released in Arabic and subsequently translated into numerous languages including English by Fursan al-Tarjuma. The infographic details the results of IS's attacks during the first half of 2025.
Of the 13 countries listed by IS, 9 are in Africa. That's more than half of the countries where IS currently actively operates, carrying out attacks on civilians, other Jihadist groups, and security forces. In terms of the amount of attacks carried out, the top four countries affected are Nigeria, Somalia, the DRC and Mozambique.
We have previously highlighted the effects of Islamic State attacks in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado Province in this blog. Islamic State -Mozambique (IS-M) recently notably adopted a new tactic where they targeted a South African-owned tourist destination in Cabo Delgado Province. This was the first confirmed IS-M attack on a tourist destination, grabbing some attention in South African media. Some political analysts from South Africa commented on LinkedIn that this would be the wake-up-call that South Africa needs to take action against the Jihadist threat from the North. However, it is unclear what South Africa will do in the face of this attack, especially in the wake of the withdrawal of the failed SAMIM mission. It is a failure in the sense that if the mission objective was to rid Cabo Delgado of IS-M, that clearly was not achieved. In fact, IS-M's targeting of a South African business after the SAMIM withdrawal is a bold statement by IS-M against South African interests. There does not appear to be any evidence that Cyril Ramaphosa called a press-conference to address the attack against a South African business in Cabo Delgado where at least two people were beheaded. If it is correct that there has been no official communication from the government on this attack, it would appear that the IS-M threat is not as much of a priority as domestic security issues. This is a notable position considering South Africa's involvement in counter-terrorism in the DRC. That being said, the DRC mission was also disastrous for the South African troops who died there. Also, some might argue that the situation in Mozambique is not any of South Africa's concern since the threat is not at the border and is relatively far away geographically. In response, some might highlight South Africa's involvement at the ICJ against Israel, a country located on another continent entirely.
IS is not the only terrorist group to watch on the continent. Al-Qaeda's (AQ) branch in West Africa, Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), continues attacks Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, among others. The group recently released the below infographic, detailing their operations for the Islamic month of Dhul Hijjah.
Additionally, in May 2025, the following images circulated widely on social media with users reporting that they showed Chinese hostages currently held by JNIM who had been taken from sites in Mali and Niger. China continues to invest in African economies through means such as infrastructure development and it is possible that JNIM wants to use the hostages as leverage to force China out of the Sahel. This is just one case that highlights the international economic ramifications of Jihadism in Africa.
The Sahel remains a hotspot of terrorist activity. On 19 June 2025, an attack targeted the tri-border region between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, in Banibangou in Niger. The attack was carried out by more than 200 gunmen on motorbikes and killed at least 34 soldiers.
On 3 July 2025, JNIM carried out multiple attacks on military targets in Western Mali, with at least one target located near the Senegalese border. The spillover of JNIM activity into littoral West Africa remains an important trend on the continent. In a notable propaganda-related development, an official Al-Shabaab website shared the news of these attacks stating that "JNIM is fighting in alliance with branches of al-Qaeda to liberate Muslim countries from corrupt local regimes, expel foreign forces and mercenaries, sever the grip of Western hegemony, and establish a comprehensive and independent Islamic Sharia system". It is unusual for Shabaab to share JNIM-related events. Some analysts have noted in the past that JNIM seemed to be moving away from central Al-Qaeda in terms of propaganda production and chain of command, but this mention of JNIM by Shabaab could signal otherwise.
Further to the expansion into littoral West Africa, a video circulated widely on social media on 12 July 2025, showing JNIM fighters allegedly located in Nigeria. Other than it being highly unusual that they are allegedly in Nigeria, where they have never operated before, the fighters in the video threaten expansion to Ghana, Togo and Benin. The threat should be concerning to the international community.
Islamic State-Somalia (ISS) and Al-Shabaab both continue activities in Somalia, with Shabaab also active in neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia. Al Shabaab does not restrict its attacks to rural theatres and on 9 July 2025, it carried out a suicide attack at the Jale Siyad military base in Mogadishu. Below is an IS infographic detailing ISS activity in the Bari Region of Somalia, showing the scale of a series of attacks over just 11 days.
ISS released the below call to Muslims in East Africa, specifically in Ethiopia, to join IS. This illustrates that IS is eyeing an expansion into other parts of the region, highlighting their capability to train new fighters in their camps.
Like IS, Shabaab is also highly active in terms of its propaganda creation and proliferation. The group runs multiple news outlets and frequently post claims of credit for attacks and statements about taking control of areas alongside imagery of the group's activities. Their frequent online activity provides insight into their capabilities. Below is a photo from Al-Kata'ib Foundation, one of Shabaab's media wings, dated 13 July 2025. Shabaab reports that the image shows fighters taking over the Tardo area, which they report to have captured peacefully.
The below poster highlights the ongoing conflict between Shabaab and ISS and the greater feud between Islamic State and al-Qaeda. Civilians likely get caught in the crossfire between the groups who compete for territory in Somalia and beyond. It is noteworthy that the African offshoots of Islamic State and al-Qaeda are these days used to illustrate the global battle between IS and AQ, highlighting how important the African branches of both groups have become.
African Christians Remain Jihadist Targets
Christians in Africa continue to be targeted by Islamic State in countries including Nigeria, DRC and Mozambique. Islamic State explicitly detail in their propaganda that they target Christians whom they call "kaffirs" which translates to infidels or non-believers. In many claims of credit for attacks in DRC, IS states that they target "Christian villages", where presumably the majority of inhabitants are Christians. See an example of a translated claim below:
Associated Press reports that 66 civilians were killed by suspected Islamist rebels between 10 and 11 July 2025 in the Walese Vonkutu chiefdom, Irumu territory, in Ituri Province of DRC. One would be hard pressed to find widespread multilingual online outrage about this attack equivalent to that expressed when similar amounts of civilians are killed in places like Gaza.
A report from Open Doors states that "More believers are killed for their faith in Nigeria than anywhere else in the world. These militants also destroy homes, churches and livelihoods. More than 16.2 million Christians in sub-Saharan Africa, including high numbers from Nigeria, have been driven from their homes by violence and conflict. Millions now live in displacement camps."
In Mozambique, Aid to the Church in Need reports that "The Christian population of Cabo Delgado in northern Mozambique is suffering greatly from terrorist attacks carried out as part of an Islamist insurgency. " Attacks by IS-M destroy Christian villages as in Nigeria and DRC, targeting Christian homes and businesses. Arson is a common tactic against Christians in Africa.
Forced conversion to Islam is another tactic used by Islamic State against African Christians. The group previously released the below image in its weekly magazine, al-Naba, stating that more than 50 Christians had converted to Islam following a Dawah campaign in the province of Ituri in DRC. The converts appear to be children. Dawah is the act of inviting people to join Islam.
PMC Wagner and Africa Corps
The Wagner Group's brutal actions in the Sahel, particularly in the AES States of Niger, Burkina Faso Mali, and in Central African Republic (CAR) has gone somewhat unnoticed by the mainstream media. The Russian government is currently transitioning control of its military operations on the continent from Wagner Group to Africa Corps. Africa Corps is baked by the Russian Ministry of Defence in an apparent attempt by Russia to deflect from Wagner's war crimes/human rights violations by instead being associated with Africa Corps. Africa Corps appears to be promoted as a more transparent and official version of Russian military presence in Africa. Wagner announced on 6 June 2025 that it had withdrawn from Mali, while Africa Corps announced on the same day that it would remain in-country. Some former Wagner members have joined Africa Corps and this has lead to concern that Africa Corps will adopt the same brutal tactics as Wagner, such as extrajudicial executions, massacres and sexual violence.
Though infamous for its actions in the Sahel, Wagner is active outside the Sahel and has drawn criticism for its role in CARA, where one of their functions is to protect the current president, Faustin Archange Touadera, who plans to run for a third term in office with Wagner's backing. There are no signs that Wagner will withdraw from CAR in the near future.
Other Threats To Watch
In June of this year, Interpol reported that West Africa is emerging as a potential regional hub for online scam centres. Namibia is a notable and unusual location from which online scams are emerging according to Interpol. Some parts of Africa have similar socio-economic conditions to Namibia and those should be monitored for the emergence of this threat.
On 25 June 2025, Alarmphone Sahara detailed the ongoing migrant crisis on the Niger-Algeria border. Specifically, the group reported that "Thousands of people have been deported from Algeria to Niger and to the Niger border near the village of Assamaka since early 2025 under harsh conditions. The number of people deported peaked in April 2025." The report also detailed that "it’s clear that the large number of people arriving in Assamaka empty-handed, often sick, injured and traumatised, far exceeds the capacity of local reception facilities." This situation highlights that migration flows in Africa need to be monitored in order to predict and combat threats to migrants' safety.
Other threats including drug, weapons and human trafficking plague the continent. In an incident in May this year, a South African woman and her two accomplices were convicted of kidnapping and trafficking her six-year-old daughter. The victim's teacher alleged in court during the trial that the woman had told her during the search for the victim, that her daughter was already "on a ship, inside a container, and they were on the way to West Africa". Although the victim's wherabouts remain unknown, it is unusual to hear of the human trafficking routes connecting South Africa and West Africa. Indeed, this is a trend we should be watching and drug trafficking routes through South Africa are particularly common. On 4 March this year, the SAPS arrested a 55-year-old drug mule, a Nigerian national, at OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg on charges of drug trafficking. The suspect had just landed from Saõ Paulo, Brazil when he was intercepted by police. Similarly, police arrested two South African drug mules and seized cocaine with an estimated street value of ZAR7.5 million at this airport a month earlier. South Africa is not the only country used as a transit point for drugs coming from South America, but this is good example of a case study of this phenomenon on the continent.
Forecast and the Role of Private Intelligence Firms
There is no doubt that there is a need for focussed, motivated action against the above-mentioned threats. If African regional blocs and governments can work together to tackle the threats head on by pooling resources, funding and expertise, it is possible to combat the threats facing the continent that has so much to offer in terms of tourism, nature conservation, wide varieties of cultures and so much more. The first step to doing this is likely to appoint the right people. Corruption is one of the main issues standing in the way of a secure and prosperous Africa and there are so many good people on the continent working every day to make it safer and better for all. If these people are appointed in leadership roles, the continent will be on its way to achieving its full potential.
From a South African perspective, the role of private intelligence firms and private security has been clear for many years already with firms working together with law enforcement to carry out targeted operations with very positive outcomes. It should be noted here that "private security" should not be conflated with "private military contractors" such as Wagner group which are notorious for gross human rights violations. This blog is not advocating for the spread of Wagner group on the continent as a viable option for combating current threats. In fact, it is known that in some places where Wagner has deployed, the security situation has actually worsened. Instead, South Africa is a good model for cooperation between law enforcement and private intelligence/security and it is possible that this model could be effective in other parts of the continent. However, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to countering the threats on the entire continent and there remains a need for nuanced approaches to the varying contexts in the region.
