Posts

Showing posts from April, 2025

South Africa and the Question of Coup Risk: A Critical Assessment

By -
Image
On August 19, 2025, Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni refuted allegations that South Africa is at risk of a coup, emphasizing that the nation's constitutional framework remains strong and unshaken. Her remarks came in response to increasing public discourse and media conjecture following the violent unrest in July 2021, ongoing governance issues, and the growing number of military coups in other African countries. While the Minister's assurances are crucial for alleviating concerns, the question persists: is South Africa genuinely shielded from the threat of a coup? This article examines South Africa's current security posture, the resilience of its democratic institutions, and the structural challenges it faces. It then contrasts South Africa's situation with other African nations that have recently undergone coups, before evaluating whether Pretoria's confidence in its stability is justified. South Africa's Democratic Resilience Since aparthe...
Post a Comment
Read more

SAMIDRC Withdrawal from the DRC: A Turning Point for Regional Security in Southern Africa

By -
Image
                                                                        Photo credit: SADC As a lead intelligence agency with decades of operations and research history in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and security architecture, we have closely observed the evolving situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The latest news of the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC) withdrawal is a watershed moment - not just for the DRC, but for regional stability as a whole and the future of collective security in Southern Africa. As violence rages on in eastern DRC, a highly organized web of armed groups, and rising geopolitical rivalries, this withdrawal holds significant implications for peacebuilding, regional cooperation, and the security landscape. In this critical analysis, we explore why t...
Post a Comment
Read more

Geo-Political Shocks and Your Business: How Intelligence Can Shield Your Supply Chain

By -
Image
Photo credit: iStock In an era of accelerated global interconnectivity, supply chain resilience is today one of the most significant issues for contemporary businesses. Recent geopolitical disruptions - from the Red Sea shipping crisis, and Russia-Ukraine crisis to the increasingly heated China-West trade tensions - have exposed the vulnerability of international value chains. These are not random disruptions; they indicate the presence of a broader geopolitics that are more uncertain, complex, and volatile.   For companies that rely on the unimpeded and timely movement of goods, services, or even data across borders, today’s geopolitical climate poses a serious threat. What separates resilient businesses from those caught off guard is not their size or resources - but their foresight. And that foresight is built through a sustained, geopolitically informed awareness over time.   From Trade Wars to Transit Disruptions: A Fragile Landscape The sudden increase in sea t...
Post a Comment
Read more

Hearts and Minds: Al Shabaab's Propaganda Machine

By -
Image
Authored by Cara Rau, Intelligence Analyst specialising in African Jihadism and Political Violence  Bottom Line Up Front  Al Shabaab has one of the most sophisticated, organised, and effective propaganda machines of all Jihadist groups. The group runs multiple news outlets across various platforms in multiple languages in order to both share news with their online supporters and to recruit new members. This report looks into recent activity by the group's producer of audio and visual content, Al Kataib Media Foundation and the Shahada News Agency, which is one of the most prolific online news sites to distribute Al Kataib content. Let us examine recent trends in content from the two sources to gain a deeper understanding of the ever-evolving media landscape of one of the most prominent Jihadist groups in Africa.  Al Shabaab Fighters. Source: Al Kataib Media Foundation Al Kataib Media Foundation Al Kataib Media Foundation regularly shares content about the group's military...
Post a Comment
Read more