Africa and the Emerging Multipolar World Order: Repositioning the Continent through Strategic Diplomacy and Economic Engagement

Author: Oyelayo Daniel Adeyinka is a student of English and International Studies at Osun State University (UNIOSUN). His academic focus extends to literary studies and the intersection of media, diplomacy, and leadership. As an aspiring diplomat and an advocate for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 4, 11, 16, & 17), he is passionate about contributing to international peace, effective communication, and global cooperation. Daniel currently serves as the Academic Coordinator and Assistant General Coordinator of the Deeper Life Campus Fellowship, UNIOSUN Ikire Chapter. Publisher: Fulcrum Analytics. Introduction The global power structure has undergone a significant transformation since the end of the Cold War (1947–1991). The unipolar world order, led and dominated by the United States, has gradually given way to a multipolar international system marked by China's emergence, Russia's re-emergence, and new regional behemoths like India and Brazil. This is largely reshufflin...

MILITARY BOOTS AND A PATH TO TRUE GOVERNANCE - A WEST AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE

Author: Chinedu Onwe  is a dedicated lawyer, academic research writer, and editor with over 5 years of experience producing high-quality, analytical content in law, international relations, and global politics. His work is driven by a deep passion for the International Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC) and International Humanitarian Law (IHL), reflecting his keen interest in how legal frameworks interface and influences global peace, security, and governance. Publisher: Fulcrum Analytics.

INTRODUCTION

In their work titled ”Governance, Politics an the State”, Jon Pierre and Guy Peters defined true governance as the “patterns and processes of rule that emerge in a society when the boundaries between state, market and civic society become blurred, emphasizing accountability, participation, and legitimacy”. It depicts the departure from traditional governance system to a system where there is absence of absolute state control, giving room for contribution from other democratic institutions to participate in governance process and address social and economic needs. The pursuit for true governance is not alien to the West African political climate. This ‘search’ for true governance has metamorphosed into the multiple coups that has plagued the region in post-colonial times.

The region is notorious for being a military coup hotspot, with many of the coup in Africa being conducted in West Africa. Since 2019, out of the nine coup conducted in Africa, six of them occurred in West Africa. The affected countries include: Mali, Niger, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Guinea-Bissau (attempted coups).

Figure1: Table of military coup across West Africa since 2019

To repress the emergence of unconstitutional change of power, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Africa Union (AU) had enacted extant international law instruments that promotes democratic rule while prohibiting the usurpation of political power by state or non-state actors. Article 1 of the 2001 Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance promotes the accession to power via free and credible election, while prohibiting any unconstitutional change of power. Article 45 of the Protocol imposes “sanctions, close borders, or suspend financial assistance to the offending regime” by the ECOWAS. In the same vein, the AU’s  Lome Declaration of 2000, the Constitutive Act of the African Union, and the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG, 2007), collectively prohibits the unconstitutional change of power, while imposing election ban on individual perpetrators and suspending the membership of the violating country from the Union’s activities.

However, these laws have not stalled the activities of coup plotters, particularly in the region. As the laws strive to promote democractic values in governnment process, the recent coup in the region collectively wrested power from the democratic government to counter issues of insecurity, massive corruption, poor governance, lack of free, fair, and credible election, and foreign policy factors. Hence their defense, the need for social and economic changes was the driving force behind these military coup, thus reflecting the interconnection between the action of coup plotters and the strive for true governance. How have they fared in this pursuit? An analysis of the key reasons for the coup will offer a better perspective to the issue.

1. Insecurity

Insecurity challenges was the major reason behind the 24 January 2022 coup in Burkina Faso. The former President, Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, was criticised for his inability to combat the deepening insecurity crises in the country. Led by Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, the military junta was short-lived as Captain Ibrahim Traoré overthrew the Damiba-led regime following its failure to combat the worsening insecurity challenges which led to the lose of 40% of Burkina Faso’s territory by September 2022. This was also one of the major reasons behind the 2020 and 2021 coups in Mali and the 2023 coup in Niger. However, despite the political changes, the region is still riddled with insecurity challenges as it has been described as the ‘epicenter of terrorism’ globally. What is more worrisome is that the situation has worsened since the military coups occurred. In 2020, in the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) list of top 10 countries impacted by terrorism, Nigeria was the highest ranking country from the region in the number four spot (8.007), followed by Burkina Faso which came in the sixth place (7.646) and Mali in seventh position (7.414). However, the latest 2024 GTI ranking places Burkina Faso in the number one spot (8.581) globally, in addition to Mali moving up to the number four spot, followed by Niger in the number five spot (it was ranked 12th in 2020) and Nigeria moving down to the number six spot.

Figure 2: Map showing intensity of terrorism attacks in West Africa as of 2019. Source: ACLED, 2019

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Figure 3: Latest (2024) map of the region showing the countries with the highest of terrorism. Source: 2025 Global Terrorism Index

2. Corruption and bad governance

Corruption and bad governance were some of the justification brought forward by the military juntas for the coup in Niger, Mali, and Guinea. The respective military governments, while denouncing the deposed administration’s efforts, promised to end an era riddled with corruption and promote good governance. However, little or no progress appear to have been registered. According to the Corruption Perception Index (CPI), Niger ranks 107th out of 180 countries with a global CPI score of 34/100 (moving two places from the 32 in 2022). Mali ranks 135th out of 180 countries, with a CPI score of 27/100 (having scored 29 in 2021, and 28 in 2022 and 2023), and Guinea is ranked 133rd with a CPI score of 28/100 (moving up by 3 points from the 25th point before the coup).

Figure 4: CPI score for Mali. © Transparency.org

The Solability Governance Efficiency Ranking put Mali at 173 out of 191 countries with a score of 32.89; Niger at 158 with a score of 37.27, and Guinea in 181 out of 191, with a score of 30.91. These rankings show that not much has changed with respect to tackling corruption and promoting good governance within the affected countries. For Niger, while the indications look promising, it still struggles with one of the highest cases of youth unemployment in Africa, according to the International Labour Organization. 

3. Lack of free, fair and credible election

Extant regional and continental legal instruments like the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (2007) and the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance (2001) provide for periodic elections as a key feature of a democratic system. These laws embodies the visions and intentions of the AU and ECOWAS which ensures that member states promote the and embrace democracy as a system of governance. Since the military coup, the regimes have renegaded on their promises to hold free, fair and credible elections which will see the transition to civilian democratic rule, while consolidating said political powers. This follows the disruption of civilian rule following the military coup.

The junta in Mali had earlier announced a two-year delay for the return to democratic rule which had expired in 2024; the leader of the military government in Niger has been sworn in for a five-year term in March 2025 under a new charter that replaced the Constitution; the Guinea coup of 2021 occurred in response to a controversial election which saw President Condé secure a third-term in office against the constitutional two-term in office, however the regime amended the Constitution which will see the leader of the military government contest the civilian election in clear violation of Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (2007); and the military junta in Burkina Faso extended its military rule  for 60 months (five years) from July 2, 2024. 

4. Foreign interference

The accusation of western political interference as part of the justification for the military coups ended up drumming local support for these regime, particularly given their francophone status and the maintained presence of French and foreign troops in their territories. However, since the coup, this ideology has fueled government cynicism that has led to clampdowns and even promotion of international foreign policy that not only runs antithesis to their earlier justification, but also questioned their political alignment to promoting international law and order.

For example, the regime in Niger and Burkina Faso have forced several international humanitarian, nongovernmental organization to shut down operation, resulting in the loss of jobs while deepening the existing humanitarian crises in the country. Also, with the expulsion of the French and other foreign troops from the affected countries, Russia forces (first through Wagner Group and now Africa Corp) have established their military presence in these territories, in violation of extant laws like the Accra Declaration. Additionally, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have all withdrawn from the ECOWAS following similar accusation of foreign interference in the Organization and formed the Association of Sahel States (AES); withdrawn from the International Criminal Court (ICC) describing it as a tool of neo-colonialist repression, while moving to establish its own criminal court rooted in local realities.

Conclusion and Recommendation

Jon Pierre’s True Governance embodies three main features - accountability, participation and legitimacy. These features ensure that a government truly represents the core values necessary to ensure that the society thrives. The military regimes assumed power with the ‘hopes’ of transforming the existing flaws to progress; available data and information prove otherwise. It is therefore recommended that these regimes assume the necessary accountability to their citizens and by extension to the continent by peacefully transitioning to civilian rule in line with existing regional and continental instruments, which would promote participation and reintegration with the rest of the international community, thus ensuring that the government is clothed with the legitimacy necessary for it to address the social and economic needs of the people.

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