Protesters were observed cheering alongside a Malagasy military vehicle during a nationwide youth-led demonstration in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on October 11, 2025. Source: Reuters.
Authored by Alwyn Swart, Senior Intelligence Analyst / Fulcrum Analytics
Antananarivo, Madagascar – Madagascar finds itself at a perilous crossroads, gripped by unrest that portends fundamental changes not only to its own political landscape but also to the stability of the wider Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. What began as youth-led protests ignited by crippling power outages and water shortages have swiftly escalated into an extraordinary political crisis, with an elite military unit mutinying and openly attempting to seize control of the state. At the eye of this storm stands President Andry Rajoelina, a figure whose political trajectory is inseparable from Madagascar's contentious history of governance and foreign influence. Rajoelina first seized power in a 2009 coup, backed by the elite armed faction CAPSAT, sidelining then-President Marc Ravalomanana. His ascent marked a return of military force as a decisive arbiter in Malagasy politics, a pattern unnervingly echoed in the present crisis. Rajoelina’s profile is unusual for an African leader: he holds dual citizenship, including French nationality acquired controversially in 2014. This dual nationality has sparked fierce debate in Madagascar, where nationalist critics accuse him of betraying sovereignty by holding allegiance to the former colonial power. The dual citizenship is more than a legal nuance; it underscores France’s lingering and complex role in Malagasy affairs. France’s President Emmanuel Macron exemplifies this enduring influence. In April 2025, Macron undertook the first official visit by a French leader to Madagascar in two decades, a gesture laden with symbolism and strategic intent. The visit culminated in a string of economic agreements, hydroelectric projects, energy sector investments led by French giant EDF, and strategic mineral partnerships, which may have been designed to deepen France’s footprint in the island’s resource-rich economy.
Strategic Intent
Presidents Macron and Rajoelina during a state visit in 2025 following. Source: France 24
This tight Franco-Malagasy relationship casts a shadow over the current upheaval. France, confronting backlash and declining sway across Africa as BRICS+ partners extend their influence in the continent, views Madagascar as a crucial pivot for maintaining its regional clout, particularly in the Indian Ocean corridor. The political turbulence now threatening Rajoelina's government could disrupt these interests and unsettle the geopolitical balance. The crisis took root in late September 2025, when young Malagasy citizens, weary of enduring electricity blackouts, potable water scarcity, unemployment, and endemic corruption, flooded the streets in protest. These demonstrations, while initially peaceful, found unexpected allies in the CAPSAT military unit that had once forged Rajoelina’s power base. By defying government commands and siding with the protestors, CAPSAT not only challenged the president’s authority but effectively triggered a coup-like event. Despite the president’s repeated denunciations of an illegal seizure of power, the government’s grip appears perilously tenuous. The humanitarian toll is stark: United Nations reports cite over 20 fatalities, with several towns under curfew and clashes escalating in severity. The government’s response, including a partial cabinet reshuffle and appointment of a new prime minister, has failed to defuse tensions.
SADC Vulnerability
The wider ramifications for the SADC region cannot be overstated. Madagascar’s crisis exposes vulnerabilities common across the region: governance deficits, youth disenfranchisement, economic disparity, and corruption—vulnerabilities which could inspire copycat protests. South Africa, with pronounced socio-economic inequalities and recent waves of service delivery unrest, stands particularly at risk of destabilising knock-on effects. The Malagasy unrest is both a warning and a trial for regional peacekeepers. SADC has deployed a mediation mission but faces an uphill battle correcting past shortcomings, including insufficient engagement following the 2009 crisis. The crisis is complicated further by Madagascar’s contested identity as a post-colonial state (much like South Africa) with intense foreign dependencies. France’s economic and political entanglements risk inflaming nationalist sentiments and complicating international diplomatic responses. Moreover, with growing Russian, Chinese and Iranian ambitions in the Indian Ocean and Africa’s geopolitical theatre, Madagascar may become a battleground for proxy influence, further destabilising the fragile state.
Conclusion
As Rajoelina faces an unprecedented challenge to his presidency, and as SADC grapples with coordinating regional stability efforts, the outlook remains precarious. A prolonged stalemate or violent escalation could plunge Madagascar into deeper turmoil, jeopardise regional security, and fracture international partnerships. The Malagasy crisis stands as a crucible of Africa’s enduring post-colonial tensions, youthful demands for accountability, and the volatile interplay of domestic military power and global influence. How this crucible resolves will send ripples well beyond Antananarivo’s boulevards, shaping the future of governance and stability in Southern Africa.
About the Author
Alwyn Swart is a seasoned intelligence analyst whose professional career spans more than a decade across both the public and private sectors. Throughout his distinguished service, Mr. Swart has been responsible for generating comprehensive intelligence reports for a diverse and influential clientele. The scope of Mr. Swart's analytical contributions extends from international bodies, such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC), to prominent global financial institutions like Barclays. His expertise has also been sought by investigative organisations, including Bellingcat, as well as various municipal Mayors and senior leadership figures within the vital mining sector. In addition to his practical experience, Mr. Swart is a published author and contributor. He possesses formal qualifications in the domains of intelligence, security, and risk management. Demonstrating a commitment to continuous academic development, he is currently engaged in completing a Bachelor of Commerce (Law) degree. Mr. Swart may be contacted directly via email at Info@fulcrumanalytics.co.za or by telephone at (+27) 76 417 7789.
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