The Islamic State

 An ISIS fighter with the group’s flag, Photo credits: SWARAJYA

This assessment, builds upon previous analyses published on the Fulcrum Analytics Blog, and further examines the complexities of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and its evolving presence across Africa. It will elaborate on the group's ideological foundations, historical trajectory, strategic objectives, operational theatres, successes, setbacks, and potential future scenarios for the region should this threat remain unaddressed. Furthermore, it will explore the implications of ISIS's shifting dynamics in the Middle East and the consequent impact on the organisation's strategies and capabilities within Africa.

Ideology

ISIS's Salafi-jihadist ideology is not simply a set of religious beliefs, but a carefully constructed narrative designed to appeal to specific demographics. The group leverages a potent blend of religious dogma, historical grievances, and socio-economic disparities to cultivate a sense of belonging and purpose among its recruits. Central to this ideology is the revival of the historical caliphate, a utopian vision of a unified Islamic state governed by strict Sharia law. This resonates with those disenfranchised by existing political systems and who yearn for a perceived golden age of Islam. Furthermore, ISIS employs the concept of takfir (declaring other Muslims as apostates) to justify its extreme violence against those who do not adhere to its narrow interpretation of Islam, thus rationalising attacks on rival groups, government forces, and civilians deemed to be collaborating with the "enemies" of Islam. Finally, ISIS skillfully exploits existing grievances, such as political marginalisation, economic inequality, and sectarian tensions, to further its agenda. By presenting itself as the champion of the oppressed, it attracts recruits from marginalised communities (see analysis posted 26 January 2025).

Historical Trajectory

ISIS's journey into Africa has been a multifaceted process involving adaptation, alliances, and opportunistic exploitation of existing conflicts. The group's expansion into Africa can be segmented into three phases:

1) Early Infiltration (2014-2016): This phase was characterised by the pledging of allegiance by existing militant groups to ISIS's central leadership. Groups like Ansar Beit al-Maqdis in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula and Boko Haram in Nigeria rebranded themselves as ISIS affiliates, expanding the group's geographical reach and operational capabilities.

2) Consolidation and Expansion (2016-2019): During this period, ISIS sought to consolidate its presence in key regions, establishing training camps, recruiting fighters, and launching attacks to demonstrate its power. The group capitalised on state weakness and political instability in countries like Libya, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to establish a foothold.

3) Adaptation and Decentralisation (2019-Present): Following its territorial losses in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has increasingly relied on its African affiliates to maintain its global profile. The group has adopted a more decentralised structure, empowering local commanders to operate with greater autonomy.

Strategic Aims

While the overarching goal remains the establishment of a global caliphate, ISIS's strategic aims in Africa are more nuanced and adaptable to local contexts. These include establishing territorial control in strategic regions to provide resources, training grounds, and logistical hubs, often involving the seizure of natural resources like oil fields and mineral deposits for revenue generation. ISIS also aims to undermine the legitimacy and authority of existing governments, creating power vacuums ripe for exploitation, through attacks on government institutions, security forces, and critical infrastructure. Furthermore, the group actively recruits new members through online propaganda, community outreach, and the exploitation of socio-economic vulnerabilities, focusing on the radicalisation of young people through ideological indoctrination and military training (see analysis posted 26 January 2025).

Operational Theatres

1) The Sahel Region: As previously touched upon, this region represents a significant hub. The convergence of weak governance, inter-communal violence, and porous borders provides fertile ground for ISIS-affiliated groups to flourish. These groups are involved in cross-border trafficking, kidnapping for ransom, and attacks on military outposts.

2) The Lake Chad Basin: Boko Haram, a long-standing terror group, pledged allegiance to ISIS in 2015. Though weakened, it continues to carry out attacks against civilians and security forces in Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon.

3) Mozambique: ISIS-Mozambique emerged in 2017, launching attacks in the northern Cabo Delgado province. The group exploits local grievances related to poverty, inequality, and lack of access to resources to attract recruits.

4) Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan rebel group operating in the eastern DRC, pledged allegiance to ISIS in 2019. The ADF has been responsible for numerous attacks on civilians and security forces, contributing to the ongoing instability in the region.

Successes

ISIS's operations in Africa have been marked by both successes and failures.

1) Expansion of Geographical Reach: ISIS has successfully expanded its presence across the African continent, establishing affiliates in multiple countries.

2) Recruitment of Fighters: ISIS has been able to attract recruits from diverse backgrounds, including local populations, foreign fighters, and former members of other militant groups.

3) Inspiration of Attacks: ISIS's ideology has inspired attacks by lone wolves and small cells in various parts of Africa and beyond.

Failures

1) Lack of Sustained Territorial Control: ISIS has struggled to maintain long-term control over territory, facing resistance from local populations, rival militant groups, and government forces.

2) Limited Popular Support: ISIS's brutality and foreign origins have limited its ability to gain widespread popular support.

3) Counterterrorism Pressure: ISIS has been targeted by counterterrorism operations conducted by national governments and international forces.

Possible Future Scenarios

The future of ISIS in Africa remains uncertain, with several possible scenarios. Continued decentralisation could see ISIS empower local affiliates to operate with greater autonomy, complicating counterterrorism efforts. Alternatively, the group might merge with other militant organisations, forming larger and more powerful entities that would pose new challenges. Finally, ISIS could decline and fragment due to sustained counterterrorism pressure, internal divisions, and a loss of popular support. However, even in such a scenario, its ideology could persist, inspiring attacks by lone actors and small cells.

Recommendations

Based on this assessment, the following recommendations are made:

1) A Strengthened Counterterrorism Cooperation: International cooperation is essential to counter ISIS's activities in Africa. This includes sharing intelligence (Fulcrum Analytics), coordinating military operations, and providing training and support to African security forces.

2) Address Underlying Causes of Conflict: Addressing the underlying causes of conflict, such as poverty, inequality, and political marginalization, is essential to prevent ISIS from gaining traction (see analysis posted 26 January 2025). This requires investing in development, promoting good governance, and resolving local grievances.

3) Counter ISIS's Propaganda: Countering ISIS's propaganda is essential to prevent the group from recruiting new members. This involves developing effective counter-narratives, promoting media literacy, and engaging with local communities.

Conclusion

ISIS's presence in Africa poses a complex and evolving threat. While the group has faced setbacks, it remains a potent force in certain regions. A comprehensive approach that combines counterterrorism efforts with addressing the underlying causes of conflict is essential to effectively counter ISIS and prevent it from destabilizing the continent. The international community must work in partnership with African governments and local communities to achieve this goal. The situation requires constant monitoring and adaptation of strategies to effectively mitigate the evolving threat!