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Showing posts from June, 2025

Predictive Terrorism Outlook for 2026: African Actors to Watch

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GRAPHIC CONTENT WARNING: This article contains graphic descriptions of violence and terrorism that may be upsetting to some readers. Reader discretion is advised.  Bottom Line Up Front 2025 has shown us that Africa remains one of the most important theatres of operation for terrorist actors. There have been numerous developments this year and it is likely that 2026 will be more volatile than 2025 in the face of continued tensions (including with foreign partners and regional players), terrorist attacks, and attacks by armed political groups. Factors like climate change, political tensions, poverty, and foreign interference could also exacerbate the situation.  Islamic State Islamic State (IS) continues operations and attacks across numerous African theatres. The following infographic was released by the group, showing the most prominent assaults during the Islamic months of Rabi al-Awal and Rabi al-Akhar. Out of the seven attacks listed, only two are outside Africa. This highl...

Boko Haram

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A Boko Haram flag placed on a electrical pole For over a decade and a half, the shadowy group known as Boko Haram has cast a long, brutal shadow across Nigeria and the broader Lake Chad Basin.  From its enigmatic origins to its current splintered state, this Islamist militant organisation has defied numerous attempts at eradication, leaving a trail of unimaginable suffering, displacement,  and economic devastation in its wake.  This analysis delves into the genesis, ideology, operational methods, successes, failures, and the perplexing future of a group whose name has become synonymous with terror. Origins Boko Haram, officially known as Jama'atu Ahlis-Sunna Lidda'Awati Wal-Jihad ("People Committed to the Prophet's Teachings for Propagation and Jihad"), emerged in Maiduguri, Borno State,  northeastern Nigeria, in 2002.  Its founder, the charismatic preacher Mohammed Yusuf, initially advocated a non-violent approach, focusing on Isla...

At a Diplomatic Crossroads: Recalibrating U.S.–South Africa Relations in a Multipolar World

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South Africa and the United States have experienced a diplomatic relationship characterized by both alignment and discord, influenced by mutual economic interests, ideological differences, and changing global dynamics. What started as initial commercial interactions in the 18th century has developed into a complex and sometimes contentious relationship, shaped by evolving strategic priorities, differing moral perspectives, and South Africa's increasing role as a middle power. Initial Interactions and Colonial Influences The origins of U.S.-South African relations trace back to 1799, when consular ties were first established in Cape Town, then under British control. In the 19th century, trade grew as American traders sought access to South Africa's burgeoning mineral wealth, especially during the diamond and gold rushes. Despite this increasing engagement, U.S. policy towards the region was largely influenced by British perspectives. During the Second Boer War (1899–1902), t...