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Showing posts from September, 2025

Predictive Terrorism Outlook for 2026: African Actors to Watch

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GRAPHIC CONTENT WARNING: This article contains graphic descriptions of violence and terrorism that may be upsetting to some readers. Reader discretion is advised.  Bottom Line Up Front 2025 has shown us that Africa remains one of the most important theatres of operation for terrorist actors. There have been numerous developments this year and it is likely that 2026 will be more volatile than 2025 in the face of continued tensions (including with foreign partners and regional players), terrorist attacks, and attacks by armed political groups. Factors like climate change, political tensions, poverty, and foreign interference could also exacerbate the situation.  Islamic State Islamic State (IS) continues operations and attacks across numerous African theatres. The following infographic was released by the group, showing the most prominent assaults during the Islamic months of Rabi al-Awal and Rabi al-Akhar. Out of the seven attacks listed, only two are outside Africa. This highl...
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Cash, Cars, Captives: SA’s Underworld Exposed (2020-2025)

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  This analyses the period April 2020 to March 2025 , a time of significant social, economic, and security shifts. 1. Introduction — Why This Matters South Africa’s streets are a living, breathing organism. Every intersection, freeway, and suburban alley tells a story of risk, survival, and ingenuity — from the petty thief to the sophisticated gang running multi-million-rand operations. Over the past five years, three crime types — CIT heists, hijackings, and kidnappings — have defined the underworld’s pulse, shaping daily life, business operations, and law enforcement strategies (ISS Africa, 2023; SAPS, 2024). These crimes matter because they aren’t isolated. A hijacking today can finance a kidnapping tomorrow; a stolen van may be used in a CIT heist next week. The interconnectivity of these crimes has created a criminal economy , a shadow network operating parallel to legitimate society (Businesstech, 2024). Why read this booklet? Because understanding the who, how, and why beh...
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