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Protests and Economic Problems Threaten the Internal Stability. Source: specialeurasia.com
What began as a protest over the
economic decline in Tehran has turned into a national protest against the
ruling political leadership in Iran. Now on its 11 th day, the protests have
spread to over 200 locations across most of the 31 regions of the country.
Government response has been swift, with cases of clampdown reported, leading
to internet shutdowns, arrests, violent crackdowns that have resulted in over
900 arrests, injuries and the death of some protesters, including children.
While the government has also offered economic relief as non-kinetic efforts to
address the concerns of the protesters, this has been met with opposition. Given
Iran’s geopolitical relevance in the Middle East region and globally, it is
imperative to consider the internal and external political implications of the
ongoing civil unrest, particularly considering recent reports of the Iranian
Supreme Leader fleeing the country if the unrest continues, signifying an end
to the over 40-year theocratic regime. This article will consider the background
and triggers of the ongoing protests; Iran’s current political situation; the international
implications of an extended unrest; considering the rumors stated above,
potential political replacements, and what a post-Iran regime change scenario
could look like.
Background and triggers of the
December 2025/January 2026 protests
Deplorable economic situations
have primarily fueled the protests in Iran, which began on 28 December 2025.
The protests with the closure of Tehran’s Grand Bazaar – a business environment
considered the ‘beating heart’ for economic and political life in Iran – over
the poor performance of the Iranian rial as it hit an all-time low, before
spreading to other bazaars and commerce districts. For context, the rial was at
70 to $1 during the Iranian Revolution of the ‘70s; 32,000 to $1 during the
2015 Nuclear deal, and 1.4 million to $1 as of December 2025. Fast forward to
January 9, 2026, and the protests have evolved beyond a demand for an improved
economic situation to a call for a change in the country’s political
leadership. Thousands of Iranians have flooded the streets in over 200
locations across the country’s 31 regions, including Tehran, chanting ‘death to
the dictator’ and even waving the flag of imperial Iran, accompanied by
pro-Shah chants, signifying a call for the return of the Iranian monarchy that
collapsed during the 1979 revolution. Protesters have destroyed public images
of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a like-minded fashion to the 2022 Woman,
Life, Freedom movement, though the triggers remain different.
Current political situation in
Iran
The regime’s reaction to the
growing protests has been swift, with the deployment of the IRGC, police
officers and Basij militia to disperse the protesters. The use of live
ammunition, tear gas and machine guns in a bid to quell the violence has
resulted in the injuries and, tragically, the death of some protesters,
including minors. The violent crackdowns have extended to victims in hospitals
who were attacked by security forces while receiving treatments for their
injuries, highlighting an alarming violation of extant international human
rights laws on the right to life and freedom of assembly. There have also been
reports of internet shutdowns, partial blackouts and the imposition of martial
law, pointing to a possible attempt to restrict media coverage of the unrest.
On the non-kinetic front, the
regime has rolled out emergency economic measures, including redirecting
subsidies into $7 monthly electronic credits per citizen for essentials – a
relief which has been widely rejected and criticized for being meagre and
insufficient, particularly considering recent corruption and mismanagement
accusations against the regime.
International Implications
The international implications
of the current protests are just as significant as the internal implications.
US-led sanctions have actively contributed to the existing economic situation
in the country following its persistent pursuit of the development of nuclear
weapons. Since the start of the protests, Trump has sided with the protesters,
describing them as being “brave”, while stating the readiness of the U.S. to
intervene militarily if violent crackdowns lead to the loss of lives. However,
reports indicate that Trump remains concerned that the unrest will lead to the
collapse of the regime and a political transition, which may not be orderly,
thus sparking another round of chaos and could be as bloody and disruptive as
the political situation that followed the Shah’s fall in 1979. These are valid
concerns given Iran’s strategic role as financier for terror groups in the
region, and the existence of the undisclosed nuclear arms materials which could
fall into the wrong hands. The vacuum created by the regime change could complicate
efforts to maintain regional stability, prevent the proliferation of sensitive
weapons, and contain the spread of violence beyond Iran’s borders. Nevertheless,
international sentiments continue to favour protests, as tech entrepreneurs
look forward to investing in a post-Islamic Republic Iran. Entrepreneurs like
Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, Jeff Huber, and Michael Granoff have all
indicated interest in “funding technologists, engineers, entrepreneurs” in
post-protest Iran, indicating that international perceptions are being shifted
from political to potential economic and technological opportunities.
Possible potential replacements
and regime change scenario
Against the backdrop of a
possible regime change scenario, which could see Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
fleeing Iran if the unrest continues, protesters have been making pro-Shah
chants, with many Iranians wanting to see the fall of the clerical regime and
the return of Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah, from exile to head
a transitional government to democratise Iran. Over the years, Prince Reza has
been a vocal critic of the regime and has recently urged Iranians to maintain
their resolve in bringing an end to the current regime. With many, particularly
the younger generation of Iranians, expressing their affinity to the Iranian
monarch who was toppled during the ’79 revolution, Prince Reza remains a
leading potential replacement in the event of a regime collapse. Beyond Iranian
sentiments, President Trump has noted that he has “watched (Prince Reza), and
he seems like a nice person”; however, when asked if he would meet the Prince
and possibly endorse him as the new leader of a post-Islamic Republic Iran, he opted
to see how events unfold before proceeding with the meeting. However, the fall
of the regime may not be the only stumbling block to a political transition to democratic
rule. Decades of entrenched autocratic systems in the military and
paramilitary, and religion could hinder a successful transition. Given that
most of the figures who developed these institutions like the IRGC and the
Basij militia will persistently defend the regime till the end, it could
complicate the transition process. Also, the existence of international allies
like Russia and China, and other allied states including terror groups and
proxies, who may offer external and relevant internal support to either the
sitting regime or any emerging power in the transition process in a bid to
maintain and strengthen their interests, is a significant piece that cannot be overlooked.
Conclusion
The protests in Iran reflect a
deepening public frustration over worsening economic conditions and the absence
of real political accountability. The regime’s response, marked by violent crackdowns,
internet shutdowns, and power blackouts, signals a clear determination to make any
regime change unattainable. These actions have prompted calls by the UN Human
Rights Agency for independent investigations. That the state is willing to
openly violate established international human rights standards to preserve its
sovereignty points to a troubling trajectory, raising fears about what further
measures it may deploy to suppress dissent. Beyond Iran’s borders, the
uncertainty surrounding a post–Islamic Republic Iran is also a source of global
concern. This is particularly so given Tehran’s long-standing role as a key financier
and supporter of armed non-state actors across the region. In such a scenario, international
allies and rivals alike are unlikely to remain passive, further heightening
tensions. Internally, entrenched power structures, including succession plans
shaped by the Supreme Leader, may obstruct any smooth transition to democratic
rule, while also complicating the prospects of Prince Reza’s return as the head
of a new government. Consequently, sustained international pressure is
necessary to ensure accountability for human rights abuses, particularly
through support for independent investigations. Additionally, any conversation
around political transition must remain Iranian-led and inclusive, while
avoiding elite-driven succession arrangements that could undermine genuine
democratic reform.
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