Fulcrum Analytics

Authored by: Cara Rau; Political and intelligence analyst focussed on African Jihadism and political violence.   Bottom Line Up Front In addition to recent gains by the March 23 Movement (M23) in North and South Kivu Provinces of DRC, the Cooperative for the Development of the Congo (CODECO) and Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) continue to terrorise communities of the Ituri and North-Kivu Provinces. On 10 February 2025, the Cooperative for the Development of the Congo (CODECO) killed at least 51 civilians in an attack on the Djaiba group of villages in Ituri Province after an attack the night before on a camp for internally displaced people (IDPs). A list allegedly of the names of the 51 victims circulated on social media. Further, multiple sources including the Catholic Herold , Aid to the Church in Need , and Benin Web TV , among others reported the killing of at least 70 Christians whose bodies were found in a church in Kasanga, North-Kivu Province on 15 February...

An Hamas fighter with the groups flag. Photo credits: Wikipedia Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement, stands as a pivotal and deeply contentious force within the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  Originating in 1987 during the First Intifada, this organization has evolved from a grassroots resistance to the de facto governing authority of the Gaza Strip.  Characterized by its dual strategy of armed struggle and social welfare provision, Hamas navigates a complex interplay of nationalist aspirations and Islamist ideology.  Its trajectory, marked by violent confrontations, political victories, and the devastating events of October 7th, 2023, has profoundly reshaped the region,  leaving an indelible mark on the landscape of Middle Eastern politics. Origins and Ideological Foundations The genesis of Hamas, or Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiyya (Islamic Resistance Movement), is inextricably linked to the simmering discontent among Palestinians during the late 1980s.  Th...

 An ISIS fighter with the group’s flag, Photo credits: SWARAJYA This assessment, builds upon previous analyses published on the Fulcrum Analytics Blog,  and further examines the complexities of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and its evolving presence across Africa.  It will elaborate on the group's ideological foundations, historical trajectory, strategic objectives, operational theatres, successes, setbacks,  and potential future scenarios for the region should this threat remain unaddressed.  Furthermore, it will explore the implications of ISIS's shifting dynamics in the Middle East and the consequent impact on the organisation's strategies and capabilities within Africa. Ideology ISIS's Salafi-jihadist ideology is not simply a set of religious beliefs, but a carefully constructed narrative designed to appeal to specific demographics.  The group leverages a potent blend of religious dogma, historical grievances, and socio-economic disparities...

Author: Cara Rau; Intelligence Analyst Specialising in African Jihadism  Bottom Line Up Front  On 1 February 2025 US President Donald Trump said that the US had carried out air strikes against Islamic State fighters in Somalia's Cal Miskaad Mountains, part of the Golis Mountain Range in the North-East of the country. Several high-ranking  Islamic State Somalia (ISS)  fighters were reportedly killed in the strike.  Golis Mountain Range, Somalia.  Puntland Geography Ideal for IS Hideouts The US strike comes after Puntland security forces recently destroyed several bases belonging to ISS in the Cal Miskaad Mountains, reportedly taking some foreign fighters captive in the process. These mountains are highly strategic and have previously been used by Al Shabaab as a hideout. It is also notable that the fighters utilising these caves now originate from neighbouring African countries, many from Ethiopia, and from the Middle East across the Gulf of Aden. Security ...