Fulcrum Analytics

The ongoing conflict between Morocco and the Sahrawi people of Western Sahara ranks among the longest, most misunderstood, and diplomatically complex disputes in contemporary international relations. Although often overshadowed by more violent conflicts, it serves as a prime example of how contested sovereignty, occupation, and global recognition develop amidst the complexities of international law, realpolitik, and shifting alliances. For those in security and intelligence fields, this situation provides valuable insights into the dynamics of soft power, information warfare, and geopolitical strategies. A Brief Contextual Overview Western Sahara, a sparsely populated area rich in phosphates and with substantial offshore fishing resources, was a Spanish colony until 1975. Following Spain's withdrawal, Morocco and Mauritania laid claim to parts of the territory. The Sahrawi nationalist group, the Polisario Front, primarily supported by Algeria, proclaimed the Sahrawi Arab Democr...

Author: Cara Rau, Political and Intelligence Analyst  WARNING: THIS REPORT CONTAINS DESCRIPTIONS OF GRAPHIC VIOLENCE AND CONTENT SOME MAY FIND DISTURBING. READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.  Bottom Line Up Front  Despite the world's largest displacement crisis affecting Sudan, and Burkina Faso being ranked by the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) in 2025 as the nation the most affected by terrorism in the world, the mainstream media still appears to favour reporting on Gaza and Ukraine. Of course these conflicts deserve our attention, but so do other parts of the world, specifically Africa, a continent the world media has left behind.  South Africa   Despite South Africa not being at war nor being actively targeted by Jihadist insurgents, the security situation in the country remains dire. Violent crime remains a threat with gender-based violence, gang violence, organised crime and other related topics continuing to make local headlines. The security situation in ...

South Africa's inaugural Government of National Unity (GNU) was established following the 2024 general elections. This formation was anticipated by many as a mechanism for fostering political stability, inclusive governance, and economic reform. However, increasing dissatisfaction and emerging divisions, particularly between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA), pose a substantial threat to national social cohesion, economic confidence, and South Africa's international credibility. Recent developments have seen the DA publicly withdraw support for ANC-led departmental budgets, citing concerns of corruption. This situation highlights the profound ideological and operational divisions within the coalition.   1. Structural Challenges of the GNU The GNU comprises various ideologically diverse parties, including the ANC, DA, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), among others. These parties are united more by electoral arithmetic and mutually beneficial...