Between Sand and Sovereignty: Making Sense of the Morocco–Western Sahara Conflict

The ongoing conflict between Morocco and the Sahrawi people of Western Sahara ranks among the longest, most misunderstood, and diplomatically complex disputes in contemporary international relations. Although often overshadowed by more violent conflicts, it serves as a prime example of how contested sovereignty, occupation, and global recognition develop amidst the complexities of international law, realpolitik, and shifting alliances. For those in security and intelligence fields, this situation provides valuable insights into the dynamics of soft power, information warfare, and geopolitical strategies.

A Brief Contextual Overview

Western Sahara, a sparsely populated area rich in phosphates and with substantial offshore fishing resources, was a Spanish colony until 1975. Following Spain's withdrawal, Morocco and Mauritania laid claim to parts of the territory. The Sahrawi nationalist group, the Polisario Front, primarily supported by Algeria, proclaimed the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) and engaged in guerrilla warfare against Moroccan forces. By 1979, Mauritania had relinquished its claim, and Morocco took control of most of the region.

Despite a UN-mediated ceasefire in 1991, which was supposed to lead to an independence referendum, the vote has yet to occur. Instead, Morocco has solidified its presence through infrastructure projects and resettlement initiatives, while the Polisario Front governs a smaller eastern section, divided by the Moroccan-constructed Berm, a fortified sand wall stretching over 2,700 km.

Intelligence Perspectives on a Persistent Dispute

From an intelligence perspective, Western Sahara exemplifies long-term strategic uncertainty. Morocco has effectively internationalized its stance through diplomatic normalization, most notably with the United States during the Trump administration, which in 2020 acknowledged Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in return for Morocco's normalization of relations with Israel.

This decision reshaped the diplomatic landscape. Although the Biden administration has not reversed this recognition, it has also refrained from further formalizing it, allowing ambiguity to continue. Meanwhile, other nations and regional groups, including the African Union (which recognizes the SADR as a member), persist in advocating for Sahrawi self-determination.

For intelligence analysts, this ambiguity offers a rich area for observing strategic influence campaigns, covert support networks, proxy dynamics, and information operations. Morocco's well-funded lobbying and influence efforts in Western capitals, including targeted interactions with think tanks, parliaments, and media, illustrate how soft power is utilized to effect normative changes in international recognition.

The Diplomatic Chessboard: International Institutions and Legal Disputes

In the meantime, global organizations have found themselves caught up in the diplomatic fallout. While there is no direct evidence that FIFA has deliberately excluded Morocco because of its occupation of Western Sahara, the organization has been walking a diplomatic tightrope. For instance, debates have arisen over whether Western Sahara should be allowed to participate in international competitions or if events hosted by Morocco should include facilities built in the occupied region. These controversies highlight the complex intersection of sports, sovereignty, and political legitimacy. The European Union has also been subjected to intense legal and political examination concerning its agreements with Morocco.

Several trade and fisheries deals have involved goods and resources from Western Sahara without the explicit approval of the Sahrawi people, leading to legal challenges in the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). In a significant 2016 decision (Case C-104/16 P), the Court ruled that Western Sahara was not part of Morocco and therefore could not be included in trade agreements without the consent of its people. This was confirmed again in 2021 when the General Court annulled parts of EU-Morocco trade and fisheries agreements on similar grounds. These legal decisions challenge Morocco’s de facto integration of Western Sahara into its economic and political sphere and illustrate how legal strategies have become a tool in the broader strategic contest.

Shifting Alliances and Strategic Implications 

For African nations, especially in the Sahel and Maghreb regions, the Western Sahara issue is closely linked with broader regional security concerns. Algeria’s strong support for the Polisario Front and its rivalry with Morocco have led to proxy tensions, including the severing of diplomatic relations in 2021. Additionally, rumors of increased Iranian support for Polisario through Hezbollah - though officially denied - have added another layer of geopolitical complexity. Israel’s expanding defense and intelligence ties with Morocco since the 2020 Abraham Accords further complicate the situation. Analysts and diplomats have expressed concerns that the normalization process might be seen as rewarding occupation, setting a precedent that could undermine global norms on territorial disputes and self-determination.

Intelligence Gaps and the Role of Non-State Actors

Despite its duration and intensity, the conflict remains underreported in mainstream intelligence assessments. This is partly due to the low-intensity nature of the confrontation and the lack of high-profile casualties or dramatic attacks. However, the risk of escalation persists, particularly if Polisario adopts asymmetric tactics or if the region’s fragile security landscape, already threatened by jihadist activity in the Sahel, worsens. Moreover, Morocco’s extensive internal surveillance system, often praised for its counterterrorism achievements, also raises concerns about the suppression of Sahrawi dissent and the strategic use of surveillance to consolidate control. In recent years, reports from Amnesty International and other human rights organizations have highlighted the use of Pegasus spyware (developed by NSO Group) against journalists and activists in Western Sahara and beyond. While Rabat denies these allegations, the possibility underscores the use of cyber intelligence tools in maintaining territorial control and narrative dominance.

Conclusion: Strategic Patience or Protracted Stalemate?

The Western Sahara conflict highlights the tension between legal ideals and strategic practicality. Although the United Nations officially endorses self-determination, the Security Council is stalled due to conflicting interests among its permanent members. Consequently, intelligence experts must keep an eye on not just military actions but also the gradual impact of soft power, economic integration, surveillance tactics, and changes in international law. As global focus shifts more towards major power rivalries, conflicts like Western Sahara, often labeled as "frozen," might be wrongly perceived as insignificant or inactive. However, their ongoing nature and intricacy provide valuable insights into resilience, information control, and the multifaceted nature of contemporary conflicts.

Given the intricate nature and ongoing controversy of the Western Sahara conflict, we have provided a carefully curated list of authoritative sources and further reading materials. This compilation is intended to offer readers deeper insight and a broader understanding of the multifaceted legal, political, and geopolitical dimensions at play - acknowledging that no single narrative can fully capture the complexity of this enduring dispute.

Sources for prospective further analysis:

• United Nations Security Council Resolutions on Western Sahara
  A comprehensive archive of UNSC resolutions addressing the Western Sahara conflict, peacekeeping mandates, and political developments.
  UN Security Council Resolutions on Western Sahara

• European Court of Justice rulings: C-104/16 P (2016) and joined cases T-344/19 and T-356/19 (2021)
  Key judgments affirming that Western Sahara is not part of Morocco and that trade agreements require Sahrawi consent.

  • 2016 ruling: Case C-104/16 P Judgment

  • 2021 ruling: Joined Cases T-344/19 and T-356/19 Judgment

• U.S. Department of State, Recognition of Moroccan Sovereignty (2020–2023 Statements)
  Official statements regarding the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara and subsequent diplomatic implications.
  U.S. Department of State Press Releases

• Amnesty International Reports on Surveillance and Repression in Western Sahara
  Investigative reports detailing human rights violations, use of spyware, and suppression of Sahrawi activists.
  Amnesty International: Western Sahara

• Human Rights Watch Reports on Western Sahara
  Documentation of political repression and surveillance activities in the region.
  Human Rights Watch - Western Sahara

• International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion (1975)
  The ICJ’s advisory opinion on Western Sahara’s legal status at the time of Spanish withdrawal, foundational for understanding sovereignty claims.
  ICJ Advisory Opinion on Western Sahara

• African Union Documents Recognising the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR)
  Official AU statements and resolutions affirming SADR membership and supporting Sahrawi self-determination.
  African Union Peace and Security Council Communiqués

• News Coverage and Expert Analysis:

  • Al Jazeera’s in-depth coverage and documentaries on the conflict: Al Jazeera Western Sahara

  • BBC News backgrounders and news reports: BBC Western Sahara

  • Le Monde reports in French on political developments: Le Monde - Sahara Occidental

  • The Guardian’s investigative pieces and opinion articles: The Guardian Western Sahara

  • Africa Confidential analysis on geopolitical shifts: Africa Confidential Western Sahara