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On August 19, 2025, Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni refuted allegations that South Africa is at risk of a coup, emphasizing that the nation's constitutional framework remains strong and unshaken. Her remarks came in response to increasing public discourse and media conjecture following the violent unrest in July 2021, ongoing governance issues, and the growing number of military coups in other African countries. While the Minister's assurances are crucial for alleviating concerns, the question persists: is South Africa genuinely shielded from the threat of a coup? This article examines South Africa's current security posture, the resilience of its democratic institutions, and the structural challenges it faces. It then contrasts South Africa's situation with other African nations that have recently undergone coups, before evaluating whether Pretoria's confidence in its stability is justified. South Africa's Democratic Resilience Since aparthe...

Recent legislative votes are not the only thing that has fuelled the controversy over territorial claims between Lesotho and portions of South Africa. Rather, it is the result of changing ethnic identities, colonial boundary legacies, decades of historical grievances, and changing regional politics. Understanding the underlying dynamics that continue to influence the conversation in this region of Southern Africa about land, identity, and sovereignty requires a long-term viewpoint. Historical Foundations: Colonial Borders and the Creation of Basutoland The roots of the conflict can be traced back to the colonial period when European nations divided Southern Africa without considering the indigenous lands and social systems. In 1868, Lesotho, then known as Basutoland, became a British protectorate primarily to protect the Basotho people under Moshoeshoe I from Boer expansion and Zulu conflicts. This colonial boundary-setting divided Basotho communities between what is now South Afri...

On an otherwise uneventful day in July 2025, a discreetly chartered plane touched down at Eswatini's main airport, carrying five individuals who had been convicted of serious crimes in the United States. These men, originating from Vietnam, Jamaica, Laos, Cuba, and Yemen, had no prior residence or legal connections to Eswatini. Within a few hours, they were placed in maximum security detention, officially labeled by authorities as being "in transit." The lack of public announcements, the absence of parliamentary oversight, and vague explanations highlighted an irregularity that demands the attention of security experts throughout the region. For an analyst, this incident is like a lightning flash in a storm, revealing the outlines of a much larger security landscape. From a realist perspective, this transfer represents an exercise in power projection and the outsourcing of liabilities. Washington has discovered a way to remove politically sensitive individuals without the...

WARNING: THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS IMAGES OF CHILD SOLDIERS, MENTIONS OF SEXUAL VIOLENCE AND ADDITIONAL CONTENT SOME MAY FIND DISTURBING. READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.  Bottom Line Up Front  South Africa has long been a known staging ground for Islamic State (IS), home to a network of recruiters, financiers and logistics managers for other IS Wilayahs such as Somalia and Mozambique. South Africa  has completed the final requirement to be removed from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list, following a successful on-site assessment.The FATF provides a framework to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, as well as the financing of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.  Online chat rooms run by Islamic State supporters recently shared notable content related to South Africa and, specifically, the role of women within the Caliphate. This content is unofficial, which means it did not come from Islamic State's official news outlets, the Amaq and N...

Islamic State Khorasan Propaganda Targets New Audience with Release of Pashto Magazine Khurasan Ghag. Source: The Jamestown Foundation. The global struggle against Islamist terrorism has shifted, and a new focal point of concern has emerged from the rugged mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan.  The Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP), the regional branch of the broader Islamic State (IS), has transformed from a territorial insurgency into a sophisticated, transnational threat.  As the West's attention has pivoted towards other geopolitical flashpoints, IS-KP has demonstrated a resilience and a capacity for external operations that should be a cause for grave concern in Washington, London, and beyond. Origins and History IS-KP's origins are rooted in a schism within the jihadist landscape of Central and South Asia.  The group officially announced its formation in January 2015,  born out of the allegiance of disgruntled commanders from Tehrik-i-Taliban P...